Fear Not, Lamar Odom Will Remain a Laker

Part II of the five part series, Busy Off-Season. I will now delve into the obstacles teams will have in trying to sign Lamar Odom away from the Lakers.

Lamar Odom might be the most unique player in the league. Certainly one of the most versatile players — known as the Human Swiss Army Knife.  Standing 6′10, long arms, great handle, strong, smooth, and athletic. Able to rebound, lead the fast break and either finish or dish with the best of them. He can also step out and knock down a three. He can defend everyone on the floor, from Dwight Howard to switching out on little Aaron Brooks.

He also has his flaws. With so much talent, it is well documented that he rarely uses everything at his disposal and is wildly inconsistent. He has always been an enigma. The guy could average 25/10/5 every night and still defend the opponents best low post player. He showed his versatility in the Finals by keeping up with Rashard Lewis. Instead, he is closer to a 13/10/3 guy, which is still good, but no where near his potential.

At nearly 30 years of age, he is in the prime of his career. He proved that he is a guy that thrives when the pressure is off his shoulders. He is at the point where he can accept a lessor role — even sixth man — and be a major part of a championship team. However, I think it is clearly time to throw out the term ‘potential’ and realize he is what he is.

Is it a coincidence that it all came together during his last year of his contract? Perhaps. He still averaged 18/11 versus the Jazz who clearly had no answer for him and came through with another solid performance versus the Magic in the Finals, posting 13/8 to go along with one steal and one block per game. He also held Rashard in check for all but one game. He really made a difference in Game 2 (19 pts on eight of nine from the field, 3 blk and 1 stl) and in the series clincher (17 pts, 10 reb, including three huge threes where he finished the playoffs 18-35 overall from the three point line, 51%).

So, the question becomes, what will he command in the off-season, or is he sincere when he says he is willing to accept less to stay with his favorite team?

I think it is much more simpler than that; I just don’t think there is anyone out there who can off him a contract he can’t refuse.

The only teams with significant cap space this summer are Detroit (approximately $24m), Memphis ($24m), and Oklahoma City ($16m). Atlanta has $17m, but will most likely use it on restricted free agent Marvin Williams, and they still have to figure out what to do with Mike Bibby. Toronto would have $14m, but it sounds like they want to keep Shawn Marion. Then there are about four teams who will all have around $7-$8m in cap space (Portland, Indiana, Minnesota, and New Jersey), but I think teams will need at least need to offer $10m/yr to have a chance at Lamar. Besides, most teams are looking to shed money, not take on big contracts.

Detroit is probably the biggest threat and Lamar could replace the inside/outside presence that Rasheed Wallace gave them. But to me, if they are willing to throw $10m or more at him, they may as well go after All Star Carlos Boozer.

You also have to factor in that there are other big time free agents (other than Boozer) who will eat up most of the open cap space teams have. The list includes Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Marion, Rasheed, Jason Kidd, Ben Gordon, Andre Miller, and Mike Bibby.

Then you have to consider every team is obviously saving up for the 2010 free agent market, which will include LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire.

A sign and trade for Lamar would have it’s problems. Do the Lakers really want to give him to a team, so that he can become a match up nightmare for us? And, if we are willing to sign him and take back another contract, is there anyone out there that would give us more value than Lamar? Maybe a Shane Battier (excellent defender and spot up shooter) or Mike Miller (shooter and creator) would have their fit, but who knows. This team, with Lamar, won it all.

If the Lakers are going to sign him, what would be a reasonable contract? In order to answer that question, I compiled a list of players who got contracts at a similar age (28-32) in the past seven years to see where Lamar might fall.

• Tim Thomas — 4 yrs $24m, signed in ‘06 at age 29 (16.7 PER in 20 playoff games in ‘06)
• Antonio Daniels — 5 yrs $30m, signed in ‘05 at age 30 (18 PER in ‘05)
• James Posey – 4 yrs $25m, signed in ‘08 at age 31 (14.2 PER in 26 playoff games in ‘08)
• Mark Blount — 6 yrs $38.5m, signed in ‘04 at age 28 (16 PER in ‘04)
• Marcus Camby — 6 yrs $57m, signed in ‘04 at age 30 (17.8 PER in ‘04)
• Corey Maggette — 5 yrs $50m, signed in ‘08 at age 28 (19.3 PER ‘08)
• Steve Nash — 6 yrs $66m, signed in ‘04 at age 30 (20.5 PER in ‘04)
• Antawn Jamison — 4 yrs $50m, signed in ‘08 at age 32 (20.3 PER in ‘08)
• Peja Stojakovic — 5 yrs $64m, signed in ‘06 at age 29 (16.7 PER in ‘06)
• Baron Davis — 5 yrs $65m, signed in ‘08 at age 29 (19.8 PER in ‘08)
• Ben Wallace — 4 yrs $60m, signed in ‘06 at age 31 (17.5 PER in ‘06)
• Vince Carter — 5 yrs $78m, signed in ‘07 at age 30 (21.8 PER in ‘07)
• Elton Brand — 5 yrs $79.8m, signed in ‘08 at age 29 (17.8 PER in 8 games in ‘08)
• Tim Duncan — 2 yrs $40m, signed in ‘07 at age 31 (26.1 PER in ‘07)

As you can see, it is not that uncommon for players around the age of 30 to get lengthy contracts. Factors are of course the economy, the amount of cap space teams have, and how willing those teams are to outbid one another. Only three or four guys get paid the big bucks each year, and I see only one or two getting it this off-season.

As for Lamar, I look to see an increase in production from the regular season to the playoffs and he has been one of the few to actually increase his production in two of the past four playoff appearances he’s had with the Lakers. He  increased his regular season PER from 16.1 to 20.7 in the 2007 playoffs. This year, he had a 16.6 PER during the regular season and 18 PER in 23 playoff games.

Based off of Lamar’s production and age, I would have to say he probably falls somewhere between Peja and and Camby. Does that mean he gets a 4 year $45m contract? No. Times have changed and even NBA owners are feeling the heat of the economy. As such, Lamar won’t see that much green.

My best guess is that the Lakers can get him for somewhere in the range of $7-$8m per year and hopefully keep it to a shorter contract, maybe three to four years. I envision the two sides settling on a four year, $29m contract, with maybe a player option in the fourth year.

A team would have to be willing to offer him $10m+ to have a chance at prying him away, and at that price, teams will then have to decide whether Lamar is a clear cut number two option. While he showed more consistency this year, but that was off the bench and he had the luxury of Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol carrying the brunt of the work, and the responsibility. Clearly, he is the perfect number three man where you do not need to rely on his scoring every night, but a number two scoring option? I don’t think so.

I believe, when it is all said and done, there won’t be anyone out there willing to overpay for a guy who might become your third option…which is a victory for the Lakers. They will end up re-signing Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom to reasonable contracts and will be huge favorites to repeat going into next season.

Stay tuned for my next article as I discuss the importance of re-signing Shannon Brown, who finished strong and showed enough potential to really be an asset for this team in the years to come.

Lakers Will be Busy this Off-Season

It is never too early to look ahead to the 2009-2010 season when your Los Angeles Lakers will look to defend their crown.

This team obviously does not need an overhaul, rather we need to keep as many pieces together as possible, while making minor tweaks to improve a couple flaws.

The top five priorities for the Lakers this off-season are:

1. Sign Trevor Ariza
2. Sign Lamar Odom
3. Sign Shannon Brown
4. Find a veteran big who can bring an edge and provide toughness
5. Find some additional outside shooting

This will be a five part segment in which I break down each priority, starting now with the re-signing of Ariza.

Sign Trevor Ariza

Trevor Ariza came into his own this season. His numbers were all very impressive as he tried to fill in as the defensive stopper on one end and the fourth option behind Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom on the other.

• The regular season (19 starts) — 8.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.7 spg, on 46% from the field
• The playoffs (23 starts) — 11.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.7 3pg, on 50% from the field and 48% from the 3-pt line

In his first three seasons, prior to joining the Lakers, the 23 year old missed 41 games due to injury. He came over the the Lakers 11 games into the season for Brian cook and Maurice Evans. He again was injured and appeared in only 24 regular season games. He missed the first two rounds of the playoffs, but only saw 45 minutes in eight games. As such, we really only have this season to judge him by, and unfortunately, it was the year his contract expired.

I am all for re-signing Ariza — I do have him as the number one priority — but the Lakers must be weary. Everyone knows of the contract-year-syndrome in which NBA duds become NBA studs overnight. Eric Dampier got a seven year $73 million contract contract thanks to his strong performance in his last year with Golden State. Jerome James got paid $30 million for his strong playoff performance while with the Sonics.

The most near and dear to me was during my first year working for the Clippers during the ‘04-’05 season, when I was able to witness first hand Bobby Simmons’ explosive season. He averaged nearly 16 ppg, 6 rpg, and 3 apg, while shooting 47% from the field. At only 26 years of age, he had nice size (6′6, 230), could play either wing position, played solid defense, and mastered the mid-range game. He had a great focus and determination to improve with each practice and shoot around before each game. I was convinced his strong play had nothing to do with it being his contract year or that I was able to watch him in person. He was about to enter his prime and looked ready to contribute to a team.

I wanted the Clippers to re-sign him in the worst way. As luck would have it, he signed an offer sheet with the Milwaukee Bucks for five years and $47 million and the Clippers let him go free. Since then, he has been traded to the Nets, had a few injury problems, and saw his playing time (34, 22, & 24 mpg), scoring (13.4, 7.6, & 7.8 ppg), and shooting (45%, 42%, & 45%) fluctuate and decrease well below his career year numbers.

It just goes to show, you never really know.

So, what is the difference between Bobby and Trevor? Well, Trevor is more dynamic on defense, is only 23, seems to be a perfect complement to Kobe and likes to play off of him either spotting up, cutting or running the floor. He gives the Lakers great length at the position and tremendous athleticism. He is also an improved shooter. I also don’t believe Trevor will get anything near the Bobby Simmons type contract offers from other teams, therefore making him very affordable.

The only teams I think will go after Ariza are the Spurs, the Heat, and the Blazers. Each team could offer him their starting small forward spot, but San Antonio and Miami could only offer him the mid-level exception (starting at about $5.5m/yr) while Portland should have about $7-$8 million in cap space (assuming they think he is a definite upgrade over Travis Outlaw). The Grizzlies, Pistons, and Thunder will have plenty of cap space as well, but all those teams already have their small forward entrenched.

Therefore, my best guess is that we sign him to a four year contract in the range of $16-$20 million. Factor in his relatively cheap extension and his young age and you can see why I think he is a greater priority than Lamar, who might command more money in the open market and will be 30 at the start of next season.

In case anyone disagrees, ask yourself one question…would the Lakers have won without him?

Factor in the two game saving steals vs Denver that led to a 2-1 advantage and two huge quarters in the final two games of the Finals (Game 4, we were down 12 at the half when he got us back in the game by scoring 13 points in the third; Game 5, he scored 11 in the second, igniting a 16-0 run and we never looked back).

Need I say more…

Stay tuned for my break down of Lamar Odom and what might happen to him this off-season.

Adam Morrison performs, but does it matter?

If you can't beat LA, join LA

In only ten minutes he shot 2-4 from the field (including one three), had 4 rebounds, 1 assist and 5 points. Personally, I like the way Kobe was coaching him on he court and, perhaps even better, Morrison was listening and responding. Morrison is a big guy, 6′8, and has proven to be a red hot shooter while in college. Phil Jackson has been known to like tall guards who can shoot and I think Morrison, if he learns to play some defense, could fit in well in the triangle offense.

However, acquiring Morrison could, more likely then not, be a salary cap move for the Lakers. Adam is in the third year of a four year contract paying him $4,159,200 a year. There is a team option for his 4th year (2009-2010 season) for $5,257,228 that I doubt the Lakers will pick up unless he shows potential. However, it doesn’t look like he is going to get minutes anytime soon, so let’s hope he shines at practice. I personally like Morrison and hope he shows potential, but I think the Lakers will use the money to keep players like Ariza and Odom at the end of the season.