The Second Coming of Magic/Bird/Jordan?

How good is this years MVP race!  Three guys who are getting the most out of their teammates by pushing them to be the best they can on a nightly basis.  It has also become a can-you-top-this race as it is pretty clear they are paying attention to one another.

Not that I am in favor, or even think Dwayne Wade has a realistic chance at the MVP trophy (due to the lack of talent around him and the fact they are only six games over .500), but he continues to amaze.  Thanks to ESPN, who just informed the world that Wade produces 49.7% of the Heat’s field goals created, if you include assists and field goals made; LeBron James creates 46.4%; and Kobe Bryant creates 37.2%.  Wade’s 29.9 ppg average is 30.3% of the team’s points; LeBron’s 28.5 ppg is 28.4%; Kobe’s 28 ppg is 25.9%.

This got me to thinking:  Is it fair to compare this trio to Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan?

The answer is probably not, at least not yet.  However, I am going to compare them side by side nonetheless.  What I want to do is actually look at LeBron as Magic; Wade as MJ; and Kobe as Bird.

• The new group has four rings between them — the 80s and 90s boys produced 14.
• The current trio has one MVP — the old trio had 11.
• KLW have made the All-NBA First Team eight times (going on 11 after this year) — MJB has 28.

How do they compare at the same age

• Bird (age 30) — 37.1% of team’s FG         Kobe — 37.2%
• Magic (age 24) — 34.1% of team’s FG      LeBron — 46.4%
• Jordan (age 27) — 39.7% of team’s FG     Wade — 49.7%

During one of their MVP seasons

• Bird — 38.9% (’84-’85)
• Magic — 44.4% (’86-’87)
• Jordan — 39.3% (’91-’92)

Obviously, there is more we can do to compare the groups, but I think this current trio stands out and is on their way.  Bird and Magic took the league to new heights during the 80s; Jordan then ran with it in the 90s.  To really make a statement, this group has to do the same, and I think the NBA is clearly trying to use Kobe, LeBron, and to a lessor extent Wade, to promote the league in a similar way.  They are becoming global icons, thanks in part to the Olympics, but what will really define their greatness, and whether they will stand the test of time, is if they win less hardware (MVPs) and more jewelry (rings) as their forefathers did decades earlier.

Winning defines us!

Case for MVP, Part II

How do our MVP candidates fair vs the best defensive teams in the league?  

First, we must define what makes a good defensive team.  I think we can all agree the team must hold their opponent to a low shooting percentage, which should directly affect the number of points they score (depending on a team’s tempo), and they should secure a high amount of defensive rebounds.  We have all seen in a number of games this year with the Lakers, they can hold a team under 40% shooting, but only be up one due to the number of second chance points.  Now because the speed at which a team plays can affect total rebounds and total points, I cannot simply use Points Allowed or Total Rebounds as the only indicator of a good defense.  For example, Portland allows 95.1 ppg (putting them 8th in the league), but is near the bottom in possessions per game; meaning they slow the game down, allowing for less opportunities for their opponent to score.  This is a good example, because just going by points allowed you would think they play good D.  However, they are a lowly 22nd in the league in FG% allowed (46.48%).  Also, they are 7th in Defensive Rebound Differential, but 2nd to last in per game averages.  This is why I am taking into account three different aspects of defense.

An interesting side note, I came up with this on my own and later referred to Basketball-Reference.com.  They have a Defensive Rating that factors the points allowed per 100 possessions, and it turns out we have the same five teams at the top.  Looks like I knew what I was doing after all.

With that said, the following five teams are what I consider the best defensive teams, in order:

• Boston (1st in FG%, 2nd in PPG, 1st in Def Reb Diff, 1st in Def Rat)
• Cleveland (2nd in FG%, 1st in PPG, 2nd in Def Reb Diff, 2nd in Def Rat)
• Houston (5th in FG%, 7th in PPG, 3rd in Def Reb Diff, 5th in Def Rat)
• Orlando (3rd in FG%, 9th in PPG, 6th in Def Reb Diff, 3rd in Def Rat)
• Spurs (9th in FG%, 4th in PPG, 11th in Def Reb Diff, 4th in Def Rat)

*So how do the Lakers compare to the best defensive teams:  6th in FG%, 18th in PPG, 5th in Def Reb Diff, 6th in Defensive Rating, and they also are 1st in rebounds per game and 1st in Offensive Rating (you guessed it, the # of points scored per 100 possessions).

Kobe Bryant

Boston 2-0

26.5 ppg  5.0 apg  9.5 rpg  1.0 spg  1.0 bpg  2.5 3pg  3.5 tpg  44.23%

Cleveland 2-0

19.5 ppg  7.0 apg  4.5 rpg  1.0 spg  0.5 bpg  0.5 3pg  3.5 tpg  43.59%

Houston 2-0

28.0 ppg  3.5 apg  5.0 rpg  1.0 spg  1.0 bpg  1.0 3pg  3.0 tpg  46.94%

Orlando 0-2

34.5 ppg  7.0 apg  10.5 rpg  1.0 spg  0 blk  1.5 3pg  3.5 tpg  42.11%

San Antonio 1-1

25.5 ppg  6.5 apg  5.5 rpg  0.5 spg  1 bpg  2.0 3pg  2.5 tpg  52.78%

Dwayne Wade

Boston 0-1

25.0 ppg  4.0 apg  4.0 rpg  2.0 spg  0 blk  2.0 3pg  3.0 tpg  42.94%

Cleveland 1-3

29.0 ppg  10.2 apg  6.0 rpg  4 spg  0.5 bpg  1.0 3pg  4.5 tpg  43.56%

Houston 0-2

26.0 ppg  6.5 apg  3.5 rpg  3.5 spg  0 blk  2.5 3pg  4.0 tpg  37.50%

Orlando 1-2

36.6 ppg  5.67 apg  6.67 rpg  1.0 spg  1.0 bpg  0.67 3pg  1.67 tpg  55.0%

San Antonio 1-1

28.5 ppg  10.5 apg  7.0 rpg  3.5 spg  0 blk  0.5 3pg  4.0 tpg  47.06%

LeBron James

Boston 1-2

27.0 ppg  5.67 apg  6.67 rpg  2.33 spg  1.33 bpg  1.67 3pg  3.33 tpg  44.26%

Miami 3-1 (LeBron cannot play his own team, so I included his #s vs another good D, the Heat)

31.8 ppg  8.0 apg  6.5 rpg  0.5 spg  1.25 bpg  2.75 3pg  3.75 tpg  53.16%

Houston 1-1

24.0 ppg  2.5 apg  5.0 rpg  2.0 spg  1.5 bpg  1.0 3pg  5.0 tpg  40.91%

Orlando 0-1

23.0 ppg  8.0 apg  8.0 rpg  1.0 spg  1.0 bpg  zero 3M  2.0 tpg  37.37%

San Antonio 1-0

30.0 ppg  4.0 apg  14.0 rpg  2.0 spg  0 blk  3.0 3pg  1.0 tpg  52.17%

Kobe overall (record 7-3):  

26.8 ppg  5.8 apg  7.0 rpg  0.9 spg  0.7 bpg  1.5 3pg  3.2 tpg  45.49% FG

Wade overall (record 3-9):

30.0 ppg  8.0 apg  5.75 rpg  2.91 spg  0.41 bpg  1.1 3pg  3.5 tpg  46.80% FG

LeBron overall (record 6-5):

Looks like while Kobe has the edge in record vs the best defensive teams, Wade has the advantage in overall numbers.

Case for MVP, Part I

I sent this email to a couple of my friends over the weekend regarding D Wade:

“This just in, Wade becomes only the 3rd player in league history to avg 40 ppg and 10 apg over a four game span…41 & 10.25 to be exact.  He has also had a double-double in 4 out of the last 6 games (15 overall) and gone over 40 four of the last seven games (nine overall).  12 times he has had 4 or more steals.  18 games he has had at least 2 steals and 2 blocks (6 times he has had at least 3/3).  There is a lot of MVP chatter, but if Kobe couldn’t get it going for 35 a night, Wade won’t get it going for 29 a night.  Still, the man is good.  3rd best player in the league?”

Then I watched the double-overtime thriller in Miami last night vs the Bulls, and the way Wade finished off that game, with what I think is the play of the year to date — steal and running 3 to win a double-overtime game — I think it is time for me to consider him at the top of the MVP chase.

It clearly is a three man race now:  LeBron, Kobe, Wade.  I think all three have made their case throughout the year, but it is Wade who has been the hottest, of late.

Dwayne Wade

Wade’s numbers over the last nine games (record 5-4):

37.6 ppg  10.8 apg  6.11 rpg  2.77 spg  1.22 bpg  2.2 3pg

Wade in 2009 (record 17-15):

30.6 ppg  8.27 apg  5.12 rpg  2.27 spg  1.3 bpg  1.3 3pg

Kobe Bryant

Kobe’s numbers over the last nine games (record 6-3):

31.4 ppg  4.22 apg 5.0 rpg  1.0 spg  0.44 bpg  1.1 3pg

Kobe in 2009 (record 24-8):

29.4 ppg  5.51 apg  5.45 rpg  1.06 spg  0.48 bpg  1.5 3pg