Fear Not, Lamar Odom Will Remain a Laker

Part II of the five part series, Busy Off-Season. I will now delve into the obstacles teams will have in trying to sign Lamar Odom away from the Lakers.

Lamar Odom might be the most unique player in the league. Certainly one of the most versatile players — known as the Human Swiss Army Knife.  Standing 6′10, long arms, great handle, strong, smooth, and athletic. Able to rebound, lead the fast break and either finish or dish with the best of them. He can also step out and knock down a three. He can defend everyone on the floor, from Dwight Howard to switching out on little Aaron Brooks.

He also has his flaws. With so much talent, it is well documented that he rarely uses everything at his disposal and is wildly inconsistent. He has always been an enigma. The guy could average 25/10/5 every night and still defend the opponents best low post player. He showed his versatility in the Finals by keeping up with Rashard Lewis. Instead, he is closer to a 13/10/3 guy, which is still good, but no where near his potential.

At nearly 30 years of age, he is in the prime of his career. He proved that he is a guy that thrives when the pressure is off his shoulders. He is at the point where he can accept a lessor role — even sixth man — and be a major part of a championship team. However, I think it is clearly time to throw out the term ‘potential’ and realize he is what he is.

Is it a coincidence that it all came together during his last year of his contract? Perhaps. He still averaged 18/11 versus the Jazz who clearly had no answer for him and came through with another solid performance versus the Magic in the Finals, posting 13/8 to go along with one steal and one block per game. He also held Rashard in check for all but one game. He really made a difference in Game 2 (19 pts on eight of nine from the field, 3 blk and 1 stl) and in the series clincher (17 pts, 10 reb, including three huge threes where he finished the playoffs 18-35 overall from the three point line, 51%).

So, the question becomes, what will he command in the off-season, or is he sincere when he says he is willing to accept less to stay with his favorite team?

I think it is much more simpler than that; I just don’t think there is anyone out there who can off him a contract he can’t refuse.

The only teams with significant cap space this summer are Detroit (approximately $24m), Memphis ($24m), and Oklahoma City ($16m). Atlanta has $17m, but will most likely use it on restricted free agent Marvin Williams, and they still have to figure out what to do with Mike Bibby. Toronto would have $14m, but it sounds like they want to keep Shawn Marion. Then there are about four teams who will all have around $7-$8m in cap space (Portland, Indiana, Minnesota, and New Jersey), but I think teams will need at least need to offer $10m/yr to have a chance at Lamar. Besides, most teams are looking to shed money, not take on big contracts.

Detroit is probably the biggest threat and Lamar could replace the inside/outside presence that Rasheed Wallace gave them. But to me, if they are willing to throw $10m or more at him, they may as well go after All Star Carlos Boozer.

You also have to factor in that there are other big time free agents (other than Boozer) who will eat up most of the open cap space teams have. The list includes Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Marion, Rasheed, Jason Kidd, Ben Gordon, Andre Miller, and Mike Bibby.

Then you have to consider every team is obviously saving up for the 2010 free agent market, which will include LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire.

A sign and trade for Lamar would have it’s problems. Do the Lakers really want to give him to a team, so that he can become a match up nightmare for us? And, if we are willing to sign him and take back another contract, is there anyone out there that would give us more value than Lamar? Maybe a Shane Battier (excellent defender and spot up shooter) or Mike Miller (shooter and creator) would have their fit, but who knows. This team, with Lamar, won it all.

If the Lakers are going to sign him, what would be a reasonable contract? In order to answer that question, I compiled a list of players who got contracts at a similar age (28-32) in the past seven years to see where Lamar might fall.

• Tim Thomas — 4 yrs $24m, signed in ‘06 at age 29 (16.7 PER in 20 playoff games in ‘06)
• Antonio Daniels — 5 yrs $30m, signed in ‘05 at age 30 (18 PER in ‘05)
• James Posey – 4 yrs $25m, signed in ‘08 at age 31 (14.2 PER in 26 playoff games in ‘08)
• Mark Blount — 6 yrs $38.5m, signed in ‘04 at age 28 (16 PER in ‘04)
• Marcus Camby — 6 yrs $57m, signed in ‘04 at age 30 (17.8 PER in ‘04)
• Corey Maggette — 5 yrs $50m, signed in ‘08 at age 28 (19.3 PER ‘08)
• Steve Nash — 6 yrs $66m, signed in ‘04 at age 30 (20.5 PER in ‘04)
• Antawn Jamison — 4 yrs $50m, signed in ‘08 at age 32 (20.3 PER in ‘08)
• Peja Stojakovic — 5 yrs $64m, signed in ‘06 at age 29 (16.7 PER in ‘06)
• Baron Davis — 5 yrs $65m, signed in ‘08 at age 29 (19.8 PER in ‘08)
• Ben Wallace — 4 yrs $60m, signed in ‘06 at age 31 (17.5 PER in ‘06)
• Vince Carter — 5 yrs $78m, signed in ‘07 at age 30 (21.8 PER in ‘07)
• Elton Brand — 5 yrs $79.8m, signed in ‘08 at age 29 (17.8 PER in 8 games in ‘08)
• Tim Duncan — 2 yrs $40m, signed in ‘07 at age 31 (26.1 PER in ‘07)

As you can see, it is not that uncommon for players around the age of 30 to get lengthy contracts. Factors are of course the economy, the amount of cap space teams have, and how willing those teams are to outbid one another. Only three or four guys get paid the big bucks each year, and I see only one or two getting it this off-season.

As for Lamar, I look to see an increase in production from the regular season to the playoffs and he has been one of the few to actually increase his production in two of the past four playoff appearances he’s had with the Lakers. He  increased his regular season PER from 16.1 to 20.7 in the 2007 playoffs. This year, he had a 16.6 PER during the regular season and 18 PER in 23 playoff games.

Based off of Lamar’s production and age, I would have to say he probably falls somewhere between Peja and and Camby. Does that mean he gets a 4 year $45m contract? No. Times have changed and even NBA owners are feeling the heat of the economy. As such, Lamar won’t see that much green.

My best guess is that the Lakers can get him for somewhere in the range of $7-$8m per year and hopefully keep it to a shorter contract, maybe three to four years. I envision the two sides settling on a four year, $29m contract, with maybe a player option in the fourth year.

A team would have to be willing to offer him $10m+ to have a chance at prying him away, and at that price, teams will then have to decide whether Lamar is a clear cut number two option. While he showed more consistency this year, but that was off the bench and he had the luxury of Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol carrying the brunt of the work, and the responsibility. Clearly, he is the perfect number three man where you do not need to rely on his scoring every night, but a number two scoring option? I don’t think so.

I believe, when it is all said and done, there won’t be anyone out there willing to overpay for a guy who might become your third option…which is a victory for the Lakers. They will end up re-signing Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom to reasonable contracts and will be huge favorites to repeat going into next season.

Stay tuned for my next article as I discuss the importance of re-signing Shannon Brown, who finished strong and showed enough potential to really be an asset for this team in the years to come.

Laker Pride

I’ll be the first to admit that i’ve been critical of the Lakers all season. Not out of spite, but more because of a lack of effort and resiliency. Last night though, I saw a Laker team that refused to bow out. I saw a Laker team that fought through adversity on the road. I saw a Laker team that came together on the biggest stage to show a nation of doubters that they were, in fact, the real deal.

So what if  they came up a little short?  All I know is that this was one of the easier losses for me to swallow all post season because I knew we didn’t give it away. I know that sounds terrible, but lets be real… the Lakers aren’t perfect. Time to step outside of the bubble and see them for what they are. The reality is the Lakers can be stagnant on offense sometimes and in such cases Kobe is our bailout. The reality is the Laker Defense can be shaky. The reality is that it would be nice to win it all at home. The reality is, the Lakers could have given up game 3 in the first quarter… but they didn’t.

Laker pride is a term that my friends and I throw around a lot, it’s one of those “we aren’t going to throw anybody under the bus” things. Laker pride is more of a state of mind than  anything, it’s kinda like the Zen Phil throws around the locker room. It’s about not falling victim to the press, to the Kobe hating, to the never ending drama that is inherent to the Laker organization. Laker pride is about not giving up. In a postseason where Laker fever was no longer a pandemic, Laker pride seemed to be on the verge of extinction.

That is, until last night at least. Last night the Lakers battled through another storm in Florida. They went punch for punch with the Magic (who had an historic/unbelievable shooting night). Last night, Laker pride seemed to have infected the whole Laker team. They lost, I know… but if you are going to lose, that’s how you lose.

The Lakers went down swinging and didn’t show any signs of letting up until the final buzzer rang. The players were all confident, resilient, and ready to battle. They did everything to win a  game nobody thought they would. I was proud and you should be too, the Lakers have come a long way from the beginning of the playoffs.

With game 4 tomorrow, I’ll put my money on the Lakers. The Magic played a perfect game and the odds of them playing another one like that are slim to none. I think a friend of mine said it best: “I believe in Kobe, not in Magic”. Laker pride.

Bill Simmons, Kobe Hater Extrodonaire, is losing his Credibility

Earlier today I clicked on an article by Bill Simmons that was suppose to be about Rondo’s hard foul against Brad Miller. Although I didn’t think it was possible, he found a way to take a shot at Kobe and Stu(surprisingly).

…Eeveryone has to pretend Kobe Bryant is a good guy at all times, even if it means lying to family members, friends and media members or convincing Spike Lee to make a full-fledged gushing documentary about him. The third is the NBA doesn’t “fix” games per se; the league just “orchestrates” them a little with referee assignments, and teams are not allowed to complain. The fourth is Stu Jackson and Ahmad Rashad must always remain employed with jobs that are well beyond their means. - Fouls, Flops, Fiascoes … but not flagrant

I’m getting to a point where I don’t even want to read Bill Simmons blogs/articles on ESPN. He is a one trick pony that is being played out. I think Mr. Simmons writes his blogs/articles to be an attention grabber rather then informative writer. Don’t get me wrong, he has written some decent stuff, but I’m tired of him using his “I”m a Kobe Hater” to market his articles. He knows that Kobe is one of the world’s most popular players, who has a devoted following, and he can use that to get a view more eyes on his blogs. He even took a shot at Stu this time, which was really pathetic.

His strategy has worked so far, but will catch up with him.  I don’t think he realizes what is happening to the world of sports news, more importantly, how people are getting their news.  People can get their news from more then ESPN now. There are sites, just like Lakers101, that are producing solid content and growing exponentially.  As these legitimate sites get larger readers will be able to see through Simmons tasteless tactics and self promotion.

The difference between Bill Simmons and the guys at Lakers101 is that we won’t use a marketing ploy to get a couple more hits on our site.

Who is Smush Parker to be Going After Kobe Bryant

Oh the lonely path of an ex-Laker who didn’t quite make it.

I was watching Rome is Burning — Jim Rome a fellow Guacho — and he started the show off with a quote from ex-Laker Smush Parker, recently of the Guangdog Southern Tigers in China:

“Playing with the Lakers was an overrated experience.  The problem was never with Phil Jackson.  It was with (24), formerly known as K.B., Kobe Bryant.  The problems with that team start with him and end with him…Everybody thinks that playing with Kobe Bryant is the best thing since sliced bread, but it’s not.”

First off, who does Smush think he is?!?  I don’t think anyone outside of his family, friends, and, unfortunately Lakers fans, even knows who this guy is.  Rome goes on to rip him a new one saying we wouldn’t even know who Smush was if it wasn’t for Kobe and he probably wouldn’t have a contract with his Chinese team if it wasn’t for Kobe.  Does he know he’s Smush and Kobe is Kobe???

I got a nice kick out of that one.  I thought it was real big of Smush to take zero responsibility for how that Lakers squad performed that year.  He has to go down as Kobe’s worst back court mate ever (now I will admit there was a time early that year where I thought he had potential).  Of course the problems with that Lakers team never had to do with Smush who showed up 3 games a month; who got beat night in and night out because he was too focused on trying to get steals; who turned the ball over more times than the Pistons did that whole year!

(Oh no, I just saw the photos of A-Rod kissing a mirror.  That is so offensive to athletes and men worldwide).

I only wish I was still driving to STAPLES Center in the morning, so I could have heard the response from fans on Rome’s LA radio show.

…and now I am regretting spending even this much time on a guy like Smush…

Why do people continue to downplay the regular season?

Mike Freeman, CBSSports.com: “Great win, Los Angeles. Congratulations. You win a lot of big regular season games, Los Angeles. But while you may fool some of the ex-player suck ups at ESPN, you’re not fooling me again. We’ve seen this movie before. The Lakers and Ko-Me Bryant will impress in the regular season, maybe even get to the Finals. That’s what they do. Then the postseason will arrive and they’ll get bullied and punk’d by one of the tough teams from the East. Just like last year. If the Lakers play Boston in the Finals, they’ll get smoked. Just like last year. Los Angeles still doesn’t possess the inside toughness to beat one of the great teams from the East when it really counts. So congratulations, Los Angeles. You’ve earned a title. Best team in the regular season.”

After reading this, as a fan of the Lake Show, I almost didn’t know what to say or do.  I wanted to email the guy and go off on him.  Instead, I write.

I never understand why people give so many excuses for a loss.  Man up already!  Why down play the wins when they may in fact be the reason the Lakers win it all this year, who now own the tie breakers and home court if they face either Boston or Cleveland in the Finals.  While even I will admit that I get a little excited when my team goes 6-0 on a road trip that includes the two best teams in the league, and I will also admit that this in no way guarantees a championship.  However, let’s not take away from what they did.  As stated by ESPN.com, no team has beat back to back +.800 teams, this late into the season, on the road.

More importantly, I saw three big problems that were glaringly obvious in last year’s loss to the Celtics:

1) No Andrew Bynum

SOLUTION – reports are he should be back by the playoffs and, for now, we will assume he gets most of his form back come Finals.

2) The team was weak on the inside as Mr. Freeman notes above

SOLUTION – defend the paint, something the Lakers did to LeBron throughout and as far as being “bullied” or “punk’d”, is it me or did the Lakers defeat the two best teams in the league on the road under impossible circumstances?

Could Ariza be the wild card that pushes the Lakers over the top?

3) Lack of home court advantage

SOLUTION – by becoming the best team in the regular season — which clearly we are seeing that CBSSports.com writer Mike Freeman so eloquently proclaimed us to be — the Lakers would secure home court come Finals and thus can exploit an advantage they did not have last year.

These three factors (four if you count a healthy Trevor Ariza; five if you count Pau & Lamar playing tough like they did the past two games; six if you count the fact the Celtics are missing both Posey and PJ — two tough guy contributors who “bullied” the Lakers last year — and the Cavs continue on with players that have never won anything, while Kobe has three rings and Pau has a gold medal, along with that guy Phil who has nine rings) all contribute to a solid bet that the Lakers are primed for a strong finish to the playoffs!