I’m back…

Hello one and all. It is true. I have been gone missing. It’s not all my fault. In the past six months, during my absense from writing, I got a job, planned a wedding, attended a wedding as both a groomsman and a groom, honeymooned on a 7-day cruise through the Western Caribbean (which I highly recommend), moved into a new home, got my wife a new job at my place of work, oh, and made two very important purchases: 1) a new big screen to enjoy all my Lakers games, 2) and of course NBA League Pass since it’s the only way to get EVERY Lakers game when you live on the East Coast.

The saying is true. It’s much easier to fall out of a habit than it is to get back into it. Even with all that going on, that doesn’t excuse my long hiatus. But, just because I’ve been out of sight from my readers, doesn’t mean I haven’t been paying attention to our boys (reference #1 & 2 above). At night, instead of writing for your enjoyment, I have been selfish and chose to watch Lakers games instead.

But I’m back…and without further adeu…

Was it the fact the Lakers have lost two in a row (that’s right, I have the Bucks game paused right now…at all times I am at best one or two games behind, so no one spoil the last game for me), the fact my brother in law who could care less about sports told me I should start writing again, the fact that my editor in chief stopped getting on me to write and is now enjoying a week in Grenada, or the fact my uncle called me tonight starting the conversation off “Jordan Farmar and Andrew Bynum for Chris Bosh!?” Probably a mix of the bunch.

Regardless, I guess you could say I finally had to scratch that perpetual itch that just wouldn’t go away.

Now I’ll make this short and sweet. The trade rumor got me to thinking. Is Farmar ever going to be a starter? My uncle thinks he could (I mean he is only 23), just not in the triangle.

Is Bynum ever going to be able to truly coincide next to Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol? Is he ready to be a team’s top scorer or even a number two scorer at the fragile age of 22?

More importantly, can a supremely talented Bosh fit in with Kobe and Pau? Who plays third fiddle? I believe Gasol has it in him to step back a little in scoring and let Bosh continue to get his 20 a game.

Now I’m hearing it will not happen because of financial difficulties. Bynum is a base year player, which comes into play if he gets traded. Do not worry, I ran the numbers and found a scenario that works. Throw in Adam Morrison’s expiring $5.3m and you got yourself a deal.

Bosh and Gasol are both power forwards, but to me, either could play center. Bosh is shorter than Bynum, but still lengthy and much more athletic and explosive. He is a much better rebounder (sixth in the league at 11.3/game), and plays solid D. He is versatile and has the skill set to fit into the triangle. He can pass, shoot, post up, and even has a decent handle for a big. The talent is unquestioned.

The other big factor is whether he would resign with the Lakers (his contract is up at the end of the year). The bigger question is to figure out how the Lakers roster could handle three max to near max salaries. Kobe is set to make nearly $25m next year, Pau at nearly $18m, and Bosh would likely get a starting salary near $15m. The three players’ combined salary of $58m is more than this year’s salary cap ($57.7m), with the luxury tax at $69.92.

Then again, Bynum will make nearly $14m next year and Farmar is up for an extention and you figure should comand at least $5m easy. So, maybe it will save the Lakers some money. It will also free up time for fan favorite Shannon Brown and give Sasha Vujacic a chance to prove to everyone why he’s worth an even $5m this season.

My other thought would be to look ahead. I do not like thinking about it, but at some point we all must accept the fact that Kobe will one day no longer resemble the player he is today. I will give him another three to four years of top quality basketball. But, what do the Lakers do to plan ahead for the post-Kobe era? Is it Bynum? Can the young fella wait that long or will his ego one day get the best of him?

Bosh is however only 25 (26 in March) and I think his athleticism makes him a good fit next to Gasol (who is going to be a Laker for a long time). I would be a very happy fan with those two running the show three years from now.

For the Raptors, turning a star player who is mostly out the door into a quality young point and a growing young center is not that bad. I know the rest of the league is rooting against it, but the Laker fans should certainly welcome it because Bosh is a fine young player who would make us much, much better (if that’s at all possible).

Whatever happens, I want all Lakers fans to do me a favor. Really take in this season. You know it is a good season when a single loss can shock and piss you off at the same time. Even if it’s the first loss in a 10 game span. This why you must enjoy every minute of it. Good things will continue to happen for this team because we are talented, we are hungry, and we are playing really good defense.

That’s a scary combination for a team that just won it all.

Laker pride!

The Spurs Are Again the Lakers Top Competition

“I play because the 37th draft pick usually doesn’t.” — Nick Van Exel, ex-Laker point guard

The San Antonio Spurs, with their off-season transactions, have once again established themselves, at least on paper, as the favorites to take the top spot in the National Basketball Association’s Western Conference…behind the Los Angeles Lakers, of course!

What this means is that the Lakers are in no way a lock to make it back to the Finals next year. Despite the additions to the top teams in the West — Ron Artest to the Lakers, Shawn Marion to the Mavericks, Andre Miller to the Blazers — it was the moves the Spurs made that really caught my attention. Last year’s first round exit was as surprising as anything that happened in the NBA last season, which was why I was not surprised to see the usually fiscally responsible Spurs take a whatever-it-takes approach into the 2009 off-season and fill in their gaps. What was surprising, was the success they had in bringing in some exceptional talent.

The Additions

The Spurs needed to get more athletic…in comes the versatile Richard Jefferson, who came over from the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, and Fabricio Oberto — or in NBA terms, for nothing. The team will of course welcome his career averages of 17.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.0 apg and hope his improved shooting continues — he shot a career high 39.7% from three last season, something that could easily improve with low post threat Tim Duncan providing open jumpers. He will also give Tony ‘one-man-fast-break’ Parker a running mate in transition.

The Spurs needed another big man to help out versus the Lakers size…in comes Antonio McDyess. They were able to steal him away from the Detroit Pistons. McDyess will most likely start next to Duncan and instantly becomes his best big man side kick since the great David Robinson, despite the fact he’ll be 35 at the start of the season. While McDyess isn’t nearly the high-fly act he once was before all the knee problems, he will certainly provide the Spurs with some bulk to root the Lakers big guys out of the post and keep them off the boards. His 9/8 two years ago and 10/10 last year with the Pistons was very impressive considering he was only getting 30 mpg. The Spurs would be thrilled to see 10 rpg while providing an efficient 18 foot jump shot and solid defense.

The Spurs needed to get younger…in comes DaJuan Blair; the stud college bruiser, who dropped from guaranteed lottery to surprising second rounder, was snatched up by the ever aware Spurs who didn’t hesitate taking him with the 37th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. I’m not saying he will one day replace Duncan, but he will certainly be an effective player and give them someone to bang bodies with the Lakers big men. I just read that he is considering sporting the #37 to match his draft pick and all I can think of is Nick ‘the Quick’ Van Exel-lent, who too was once drafted #37 overall way back in the 1993 NBA Draft. I can still see my giant poster of Nick stapled to the ceiling over my bed in the house I grew up in and I remember going to sleep every night reading the quote “I play because the 37th draft pick usually doesn’t” over and over again. I knew that Van Exel played such inspired ball because he wanted to make every team that passed him up pay. Watch out Laker fans, because I can see Blair taking the same approach and will be the driving force behind him becoming a beast on the boards, and a major pain for the Lakers.

The Matchups

Point Guards — The speed of Parker and reserve George Hill will still cause all kinds of problems for Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown. However, I am interested to see how well Brown can utilize his size and strength to try and bully Parker.

Wings — A healthy Manu will go a long way in how successful the Spurs will be vs the Lakers. On defense, he is always active trying to disrupt things. On offense, the things he can do with the ball in his hands causes all kinds of problems defensively for the Lakers. Jefferson might not be able to get into Kobe like Bowen used to, but talk about an upgrade on the offensive end. Kobe will have to stay honest on defense, regardless of whether he’s defending Manu or RJ, and won’t be able to roam freely. They still can bring in sharp shooters Roger Mason Jr. and Michael Finley off the bench. The good news for the Lakers, with Artest and Kobe, we have two elite perimeter defenders to better match up against the new look Spurs.

Bigs — It starts with Duncan, but having McDyess to help defend Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol is a big help. The rookie Blair seems like a tough match up because of his strength as he should be able to bully the Lakers for rebounds. They also added the shot blocking of Theo Ratliff and still have Matt Bonner to space the floor. Lamar Odom becomes even more essential as his length and versatility are key. He can defend Timmy in the low post, run out to a shooter like Bonner, or to help box out and out reach a guy like Blair.

It all adds up to one thing:  The Spurs are back. The scary thing is, the four-time champs actually seem better than ever. Don’t worry Laker faithful, our addition of Artest will help us out immensely. Either way, it should be fun to watch this mighty Spurs team go up against our champion Lakers — and if we’re lucky, we’ll see a Western Conference Finals next year for the ages. May the best team win!

What Laker Should Get More PT?

Per 36 Minutes

*The idea is you take a players’ stats and average it out over 36 minutes to get an idea of what their production might be if you gave them starters minutes.

I think the rotation will go as follows:  Andrew Bynum should start again this year while Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar will go back and forth over who gets the bulk of the backup point guard minutes. I also see Brown severely limiting Sasha Vujacic’s playing time and Luke Walton should get the reserve small forward duties. That leaves Josh Powell and D.J. Mbenga as more of an insurance policy in case one of our bigs go down. Meanwhile, Adam Morrison, the former #3 overall pick a few years ago, is the wild card. We still need to surround Kobe Bryant with shooters, so let’s see if Sasha and Adam pick up the slack. The Lake Show is looking at a strong nine man rotation for the 2009-2010 season.

This could be the return of the bench mob!

Andrew Bynum

17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.2 bpg

If Drew was able to stay out of foul trouble, you can see how effective he can be. Even though he is maybe the third or fourth option on offense, he still puts up what amounts to 18 points per night. His 10 boards and two blocks are really what you want to see him focus on next year. The offense will come through put backs and ally oops, but it’s nice to know he does have a number of good post moves in his arsenal. He will still be part of the big three (big men) and I’m sure they will all take turns on offense. I see him getting back to his pre-injury self next year and let’s pray he has a full, healthy season.

Unless he really advances, Lamar Odom still needs time, so I don’t see more than 30-32 minutes.

Jordan Farmar

12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.7 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.5 3pg

This will be the most interesting battle in training camp. The more I look at it, the less I think that either Brown or Farmar will take Fisher’s spot in the starting lineup, even though I predicted Farmar would even before last season. But, who will be his main backup? I think Jordan is certainly the more traditional point guard, who wants to penetrate and create opportunities for others, but he just needs to build up more consistency.

This could be the year he takes over backup duties and plays 20-25 minutes a night.

Shannon Brown

15.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.6 3pg (in 18 gms w/Lakers)

To me, he stands as the one guy who should without question get more playing time next year, depending on his improvement in the off-season. The triangle offense takes years to learn, but he still managed playing time to end the season last year without much knowledge of the offense, so you can see what might happen if he actually picks it up in training camp. I think the three-headed monster that is our point guard situation might not be ideal to the three players involved (including Derek Fisher and Farmar), but if they accept it, they can focus on going all out while they are in and really cause problems for opponents. Who knows, maybe each guy will pick up full court all game long.

At the very least he will split time backing up the point and Kobe Bryant, possibly playing 12-15 minutes per game.

Luke Walton

10.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1 spg

You either love him or you hate him. The classic “system” player. Well guess what, the $4.8m man is in the perfect system. The triangle calls for bright players who can pass, shoot, and play multiple positions. Say what you will about Luke (like whether he deserved a 6 year, $30m contract two season ago), but the guy can play, and fits in well when surrounded by talent. Anyone that doubts his production — and I think he has more value outside of his stats — realize his 10/5/5 in 36 minutes puts him up there with any other seventh or eighth man in any one’s rotation…and he might be our 10th guy.

20 minutes per game is more than enough.

Sasha Vujacic

12.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.1 spg, 2.3 3pg

Me being a shooter, I can attest to how tough it is to get any kind of rhythm when you are playing limited minutes a night and Sasha only got 16 mpg last year. It is difficult to tell where The Machine goes from here. Do we chalk last season up to an off year (39% from the field, 36% from three), or did he play exceptionally well at the right time (45% from the field, 44% from three the year before, his contract year; he also hit 31 threes in 21 playoff games that year)? I think Brown might get more minutes backing up Kobe, just to make room for him, which will only put more pressure on the foreign gunner to produce in limited minutes.

8-12 minutes until he proves he just had an off year.

Josh Powell

12.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 bpg

It’s funny how everyone passes over a guy like Powell, but goes crazy over a guy like Brandon Bass. Powell’s numbers are very comparable to Bass’ per 36 minutes (15.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg) only Powell will cost the Lakers a little under a million dollars next season, while some team will be willing to dump the full mid-level on Bass in the range of $5.8m. Powell can rebound, play serviceable defense and has a killer pick and pop game out to 20 feet.

15 minutes is his limit.

Didier Mbenga

12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2 spg, 4.8 bpg

You can see right away that Mbenga stands out for his defense. He is not in for very long stretches, so maybe that is why he goes all out and gets steals and blocks. If he got more time, it is safe to say he would not be able to sustain the pace he plays at, plus, he gets a lot of fouls, so I doubt he would ever be able to average five blocks per game. However, in short spans, he is a great back up.

He can give you a solid 5-10 minutes per game.

Adam Morrison

8.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.5 apg (in only 8 gms w/Lakers)

You know there is not enough minutes to go around and Mr. Gonzaga might be the odd man out. Unless his outside shooting really improves, he picks up the triangle real quick, and he dispels the slow white guy can’t guard anyone myth, then I don’t see him getting much time.

5-8 minutes could be earned; if not just to see what he’s got.

Thug Life

So, in light of the past 48 hours, I have decided to scrap parts four and five of my series, Busy Off-Season.

I was all ready to put together an article showing how the Lakers needed a gritty veteran big man. Despite winning a championship last year, we were missing that tough minded individual. A thug if you will; or at least an enforcer. Never did it occur to me that this would come in the form of Ron Artest.

While there are certain inherent risks when signing a guy like Artest — will he charge after a guy in STAPLES for giving him a funny look — you certainly can’t deny the man’s talent. Only a few seasons ago, he was playing in Indiana and moved his way into the MVP race with his all-out play on both ends of the court. Everyone talks about how versatile Lamar Odom is, but have you seen this guy?!?

At only 29 years of age, and still in his prime — having never really had a contract to match his skills — he chose to sign with the champs for the mid-level exception, which is enough proof for me to think that he wants to go to a winning situation and make it work. I realize this is not a good year to expect a huge contract and that is more what forced Ron into this situation, but now that he is here, I want to believe that his only concern will be to win a ring. He is older and wiser and has come a long way since his Detroit ROCK City days.

The two proposed mid-level deals that I mentioned before are:  Three years, $18.5m, or five years, $33.5m. This will not affect the Lakers ability to re-sign Lamar Odom, however, since he is our free agent and we own his Bird-Rights; meaning we can sign him for whatever it takes, regardless of whether we are over the cap. (Everything you would ever want to know about the NBA’s salary cap can be found here, including Bird rights and soft cap).

With the news that Ron Artest will for all intensive purposes be a Laker come July 8th, the Lake Show will get the best perimeter defender who is built like a tank. At 6′7, 260 lbs Artest is a force to be reckoned with and he’s got a mean streak to go with it (and we’ll take it). The one thing you know he will bring every night is an intensity and a great desire to win.

For all his ‘problems,’ playing on the court has never been the issue. He averaged 17.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 3.3 apg, as well as 1.5 spg and a career high 2.2 3pg, shooting 40% from behind the arc in his lone season in Houston last year. He is a unique talent, a rare specimen of brute force and skill. Not only does he outweigh Al Horford by 15 pounds, he can defend everyone from Tony Parker to Kobe Bryant to dare I say he could put up one heck of a fight bodying up Shaquille O’Neal.

As far as the rift on the court you saw last season between Ron and Kobe, I think it was more due to competitive juices (and Ron wanting to get under his skin). I don’t see them being a problem together. Even with all the trash talking and elbows flying, there is a mutual respect you could see between the two. Besides, I think Kobe and Phil Jackson will be able to control Ron’s antics off the court and on the court he’ll be just fine. You figure Dennis Rodman was much more difficult and distracting than Artest, so I think it will be child’s play for Phil next year.

My Uncle was actually the one to break the news to me the other day when he heard it on LA’s sport talk and he immediately questioned me about Ron Ron’s shot selection. It’s true, he has never had the best selection, and never really shot a great percentage from the field (42% for his career; only shot above 45% in a season once). However, what I saw last year, especially in the playoffs, and especially after Yao Ming got hurt, he became the number one option. At that point, he proved he is not the type of player that can carry a team and I think he felt he had to do too much, thus the poor shots. Luckily for the Lakers and Artest, he won’t be expected to be the number one, or even number two option thanks to Kobe and Pau Gasol.

I still want to recognize the fact that things can go one of two ways:  Either he focuses less on scoring and more on defense, accepting his role, or he can’t handle all the attention that Kobe and Pau and even Lamar Odom will get and ends up shooting way too many shots because he is not getting enough. While he only played in a few games last year with Yao and Tracy McGrady — the clear cut one and two guy — at least he showed he could step back and fit in.

I was the first to say the most important thing the Lakers need to do this off-season is sign Trevor Ariza, and while I hate to see him go, I am glad the Lakers resisted over paying for him. I thought based on where Ariza is at in his young career, as well as the poor economy and few teams with the money to spend or want to spend, that he would end up with a four year, $20m contract. The Lakers were willing to give him a five year, $33.5m contract and he felt like that was a slap in the face. For everything Ariza does, it is the things he doesn’t do (no handle, can’t create his own shot, not a lock down defender) that make me think he wasn’t worth any more. Then you factor in the fact that he needs a player like Kobe to get him good looks to be effective, and he is only worth the mid-level.

Besides, Artest is 10 times the player than Ariza is now and showed that, while he has worlds of talent, he can also just be one of the guys. In 27 games in which Artest played third fiddle to Yao and McGrady, he averaged 14.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 2.8 apg. He also shot 38.6% from the field in those games versus 40.1% on the season. He may have scored three fewer points per game, but took fewer shots, as you would expect. The team still was 17-10 (.629) and could have been much better if guys stayed healthy and got more time to gel together on the court. I have no worries whether Artest can make it work on the court.

My concerns, if any, are over his health. His teammate from last year, McGrady, is the one known to be brittle, but Ron has actually never played an 82 game season in his 10 years in the league. He has only played 70+ in four seasons (although two others he played in 69 games). He has missed an average of 21.6 games per year. Okay, so 72 of those games were due to his year long suspension, so really he has missed an average of 14 games a year due to injury. I think that’s just more a result of his physical play, and being in his prime, I’m not too concerned (plus the Lakers can always fill in his spot with Luke Walton for a short period of time).

The amazing thing is that Artest will fit into the triangle perfectly. He can bring the ball up, distribute, create for others or himself, post up, step out and hit the three (did I mention he hit more than two a game last year and shot it 40%). Best of all, Kobe will never have to defend the other team’s best player. And if we do face a team like the Spurs in the playoffs, we can put Artest on Richard Jefferson and Kobe on Manu Ginobili (or visa versa) and shut those two down.

There could not have been a more important signing and I am going to go out on a limb here:  The team the Lakers will put on the floor next year will without question be the most talented team ever assembled…at least on paper. Factor in Kobe (30), Artest (29), Gasol (28), and Lamar (29) are all in their prime. If Andrew Bynum stays healthy and continues to improve, that will just be icing on the cake!

As long as the Lakers re-sign Odom to something reasonable ($8m a year), this team will most certainly have a three to four year window to win that many rings, even with the rest of the league improving.

I want to leave you with a good point made by ESPNs Ric Bucher. While everyone will agree that the Lakers may not have won without Ariza — and the fact that he is young and only going to get better — this swap for Artest is certainly a better move for the team in the short term. The Lakers don’t have to wait for Ariza to get better, they can now rely on a ‘chiseled-vet’ and a known commodity.

Shannon Brown, an Important Part of the Future

Part III of the five part series, Busy Off-Season. Lakers need to find a replacement for Derek Fisher…could Shannon Brown be the answer?

What a busy week the NBA just had.

Sure the draft was pretty uneventful, but how exciting is it when three of the top teams in the league all make major moves and upgrades beginning with the Cavaliers stealing Shaquille O’Neal away from the we-need-to-drop-salary-and-quick Suns. Give credit to the Spurs too for breaking out of their safe shell and actually being ultra aggressive. They made a big move turning a few nobodies into one Richard Jefferson, who I think embodies the Spurs system — both in his calm demeanor and his ability to play defense. They will welcome his fresh legs and versatility. Then you have the Magic, who just lost to the Lakers in the Championship game and seemingly lost their glue guy, Hedo Turkoglu, who balked at their qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent. However, they bounced back in a hurry by trading away useless Rafer Alston and promising youngster Courtney Lee and getting back Vince “I’m-32-and-still-have-a-ton-to-prove” Carter.

With the rest of our immediate competition upping the ante, could you imagine a situation in which the Lakers do not resign Trevor Ariza or Lamar Odom?

Better yet, what about this young kid Shannon Brown?

Now, was he the reason the Lakers won the 2009 NBA Championship? No. Was he a vital cog in the engine that is the new Lakers dynasty? No. So, you may be wondering why I am devoting an entire article to a guy who barely played in 39 games for us?

The answer is, I saw all I need to know that he will one day play a very important role in the Lakers future.

A big question that keeps coming up this off-season was who is the Lakers point guard of the future? Ironically, Brown and Jordan Farmar both came into the league in 2006 and were selected 25th and 26th, respectively. Jordan was drafted to eventually take over the reigns, but in his first year he barely managed 15 minutes per game behind Smush Parker. The following year was a better situation. Fisher was back in town, which gave Farmar a one or two year window to learn, grow and mature behind a consummate pro. It also helped that the Lakers drafted yet another point guard, Javaris Crittenton with the 19th pick, which really motivated Jordan to push himself, as he eventually doubled his scoring output from his rookie year.

Blessed with an explosive first step and a 42-inch vertical that allows him to finish at the rim, he seemed well on his way. However, he has yet to sustain the few flashes of brilliance here and there, and his third year progress took a hit after a December injury sidelined him for a month. Even when he came back, his shot was as shaky as his defense and his confidence seemed at an all-time low — he has yet to get it back, shooting just 31% from three in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Brown struggled to find minutes after being drafted by the Cavaliers. An injury in his first year stunted his growth and he made a number of appearances in the D-League. From there, he got traded to the Bulls and eventually signed a one year deal with the Bobcats. After a solid game vs the Lakers, he was traded again, but this time to the City of Angels. He rode the pine for most of February, March, and April, but in the final five games of the season, Phil Jackson must have saw something in practice that made him decide to let the newcomer be the first guy off the bench. Brown rewarded Phil with a number of highlight reels as well as a solid stat line: 7 pts, 2 reb, and 2 ast in only 16 minutes of play.

Then came the playoffs. Could he have been playing for a new contract? Or, was he just happy to find himself contributing positively to a championship caliber team in the playoffs? (My guess is the latter).

Either way, I feel this is almost as important a sign for general manager Mitch Kupchak, as the signings of Ariza and Odom. I see the selling of two of their three draft picks as a clear sign they want to keep Brown. By not adding a young player, Brown (only 23 years old), becomes that much more important. Every team needs young players to sustain success. Besides, he simply showed me too much during the final two months of the season to let him slip away.

We also know PJ loves big point guards and at 6′4, 211 pounds, Brown is just that. He is also extremely athletic, can defend, and oh, did I mention he hit 48% of his threes in the playoffs? I can envision a future lineup of Brown and Ariza giving us unparalleled athleticism, the likes the league has not seen.

Granted, there might be another team who feels he could be had for cheap and offer a bit more, but I don’t see there being too much competition for him. I believe, regardless of the incredibly small sample size we have to go by, that he is at least worth the risk. I could see a three year contract worth $5.5 million. It won’t break the bank or stop us from re-signing any of the other major players, but it will guarantee he has at least a fair shot at becoming Derek Fisher’s replacement.

Maybe he won’t become an all-star, but I expect big things from the kid.

Not bad for a guy who was just a ‘throw-in’ on the Vladimir Radmanovic and Adam Morrison deal that was really only made to save Jerry Buss a few measly millions.

Lakers Fail to Make All the Right Plays

How often do we see it in sports where one play can make a difference. You hear coaches say it all the time, “a play in the first quarter is just as important as late in the game.”

The Lakers did plenty of things well last night in Orlando that easily could have won them the game, despite the record setting shooting night by the Magic.

• They shot 51% from the field.
• Saw Kobe Bryant go for 17 first quarter points in a myriad of difficult shots — he was 7-10 from the field with six of those shots coming from the perimeter with a hand in his face.
• We grabbed six more offensive rebounds than the Magic.
• Outscored them by nine points from the three point line.
• Got 31 points and 8 assists from Kobe; 23 points from Pau Gasol; 13 points and 7 rebounds from Trevor Ariza; and 11 points from both Lamar Odom and Jordan Farmar, who I thought hit some key baskets to keep us within reach.

That still doesn’t answer what happened. How did we lose that game? If Game 2 was Orlando’s to win or lose, Game 3 was certainly within the Lakers grasp up until the end.

After the first quarter, I thought my prediction was coming true. If you remember, I said the Magic would shoot well (they hit literally everything) and win a close game, unless Kobe went off (17 first quarter points). By halftime it was clear, who ever cooled off in the second half — Kobe or Orlando — would lose the game. Sure enough, Kobe went ice cold, while the Magic stayed white hot, and the Lakers lost a  close one.

Last night was clearly all about Orlando’s shooters, just as I predicted. I said we would continue to double Dwight — we did, but this time forced him into only one turnover and although he only had six shot attempts, he got to the line 16 times converting 11 of them, and is now shooting 68% for the series on nearly 14 attempts per game — and as a result, the Magic would shoot lights out (they did, although most of the damage was done inside the arc, as they were only 5-14 from three).

So, what did the Orlando Magic do well? 

• They shot an NBA Finals record for a half, 75% from the field in the first half (24-32); an NBA Finals record for a game, 62.5% from the field (40-64).
• They had 23 made field goals in Game 1; 24 missed field goals in Game 3.
• Rafer Alston got them off to a hot start by pushing, penetrating, and scorching the net early and often. He was Jameer-esque.
• Talk about balance, not only did the Magic have five guys score 18 or more, they also got solid performances from Hedo Turkoglu ( 18/6/7) and Rashard Lewis (21/5/5) who was also 3-6 from distance.
• Mickael Pietrus provided the Magic with another solid game off the bench posting 18 points on 7-11 from the field and three big steals.
• After scoring under 25 points in seven of the first eight quarters, they scored 27 or more in all but the third quarter of Game 3.

Go figure that it was the Lakers who failed to convert the big plays in the end when we needed it most. We did everything we could to start the fourth quarter, hitting all eight of our field goals until Ariza had his dunk blocked by Superman when we were down only four with 4:30 remaining. We then came up with three big stops — including two key steals — and tied it up at 99 (we could have had a good lead if Kobe didn’t blow an easy off balanced runner and if Pau finished an and one from five feet over Hedo).

In the last 2:11, after Pietrus’ tip-dunk, the final possessions were as follows:

• Kobe misses a contested three early in the shot clock.
• Fisher gets called for a ghost foul as Rafer drove the lane and blew a lay up — he hit one of two free throws.
• Kobe let himself get trapped on the perimeter, only to get bailed out by Pietrus who got called for a reach-in foul. We then took the ball out and Kobe dished to an open Gasol before getting trapped again, who then drove the lane, made the basket despite contact from Rashard who left his feet, bodied up Gasol in mid air, and hit him up high (mind you this is the play RIGHT after Fish got called for a foul just for playing good defense on Rafer). If you are going to call it close, be consistent.
• A simple pick and pop for Rafer and Rashard, was assisted by Lamar Odom who showed hard on Rafer trying to push him away, but he was still able to make a nice pass to Rashard, who of course hit the shot (luckily his toe was on the line).
• Kobe drives and gets a make up call, I guess, as Dwight moved his feet and appeared to tie him up, but got called for the foul anyway (did I mention the refs have been awful this playoffs?) — Kobe only hit one of two.
• Great defense from Odom and Gasol, blocking Rashard’s drive to the basket, who then batted it out of bounds trying to get his own miss.
• Lakers ball down only two with 37.6 seconds. Want a game changing play, well here it was. Kobe tries to split the Pietrus and Dwight double, only the  defensive player of the year made the biggest defensive play of his life, reaching down low and getting his fingers on Kobe’s cross over. Gasol still manages to dive on the ball, but instead of calling timeout, he tries to get it to Kobe quickly, only Pietrus was there waiting and came up with the biggest steal of the series. Kobe immediately had to foul — he converts both free throws.
• Down four with 28.7 to go. Lakers draw up a great play and get Kobe an excellent look at three, clank. Lamar makes a great save as he dives out of bounds, and the Lakers call timeout. With 16 seconds remaining and no timeouts, down two possessions, the Lakers decide to go for three and get an open look for Ariza who rims it, a 30-footer from Kobe who hits the heel, a 24-foot fade away from Fish who nearly banks it in, and a lay in by Kobe with essentially no time on the clock. Magic get their first victory in the Finals in seven tries and make it a series, two games to one.

If things didn’t go the Magic’s way in Game 2, it was the Lakers who simply could not make the plays needed to down the stretch to earn a victory in Game 3.

I am proud of our guys. Despite the poor defense and unconscious shooting by the Magic (even I didn’t think they’d shoot that well), we still had a chance there at the end.

I can’t imagine the Magic shooting over 60% again in the series, and if it wasn’t for Kobe shooting 3-14 in the second half and the Lakers missing 10 free throws — Kobe only hit 5-10 from the foul line (mind you this is the same guy who was 153-171, 89.4%, going into last night’s game and earlier in the year hit all 20 free throws when he dropped 61 on the Knicks) — the Lakers would be on the verge of a sweep. Then again, Magic fans will point to a couple of missed lay ups by Courtney Lee in Game 2 and claim they should be the ones up 2-1. It’s tough to play the ‘what if’ game when it comes to the playoffs. Instead, you have to deal with the right now, and right now the Magic believe they can win this series, which is why the next game is so critical.

Both teams are confident going into Game 4, and it is difficult to say who the pressure is on. Normally, you would say the home team down 2-1 has all the pressure. However, it is the Lakers who would consider this season a complete failure if they don’t win it all, while the Magic would have to be satisfied just to have made the Finals, seeing that their franchise player is only 23 years of age.

Having said that, this Laker team has come a long way since last season’s crushing defeat and I think we will find a way to defend Dwight and the shooters, as well as contain the Hedo and Dwight pick and roll. Defense won the first two games and I see no reason to think we can’t play well in Game 4.

Look for us to get after it on defense as we try to force the Magic into more turnovers. Kobe and Phil Jackson will not allow this team to lose another close game. There are far too many veterans on this team to allow that to happen again.

The Lakers will be victorious in Game 4 and Kobe will have to introduce Dwight to yet another poster.

Master of Zen vs Master of Panic

Phil Jackson is known for his calm, under control during pressure style, while Stan Van Gundy has been highly criticized for his crazy outbursts and overreactions to just about everything the team does, big or small.

The match ups will be huge in this series. You knew I was going to comment on them at some point in time.

• Andrew Bynum has the size to stay with Dwight Howard and keep him as far away from the rim as possible. If he stays out of foul trouble, he also has the talent to keep Superman preoccupied and maybe use up some of his energy trying to defend our young big. More important, keeping him occupied should stop him from roaming and creating havoc. Fouls will certainly be a problem for both big men.

• Pau Gasol will find it tough defending Rashard Lewis’ potent inside/outside game. Lamar Odom is a much better match up — he has the quickness to stay with him on the outside and the size to keep him off the block. Odom can also post Lewis up, take him off the dribble, and should be a beast on the offensive boards since Rashard isn’t a strong rebounder (6.1 rpg in the playoffs). The same can be said of Gasol on the offensive end.

• Hedo Turkoglu will probably be responsible to help off of Trevor Ariza on defense, which means the same open looks he’s been getting will still be there for him and he better continue to take advantage — he has hit 30 of his 60 three point attempts, so far. The key to Orlando’s offense, especially in the fourth quarter, is Hedo. They have made it this far without him shooting very well (he’s only hit 41% of his shots from the field in the playoffs). He is much more than just a stand still shooter; he is vital to their cause as he sets the table for everyone and is their only creator, ever since Jameer Nelson got injured. However, he is no Carmelo Anthony and I see Ariza’s size, athleticism, and length causing him lots of problems. He will continue to get steals (Hedo is turning it over 2.6 times a game, while Ariza is averaging 1.5 spg) and should be long enough to challenge  the 6′10 Hedo’s every shot.

• Kobe Bryant will be the roamer on D again. He will force the rookie, Courtney Lee, to make shots, hoping the bright lights and playing versus Kobe will be too much for the young guy to handle, although he has performed very well so far (8.8 ppg on 45% shooting). I have seen a lot of Lee this year and I really like his game. He can do a multitude of things well like stroke the three, work his mid-range game, get inside the paint, and plays solid defense. Still, he is a rookie and it is Kobe. Now, helping off of Mickael Pietrus might be a bad idea, especially the corners (he is shooting 39% from three, including 17-36 threes vs Cleveland). He has scored in double figures off the bench in eight straight games, 12 of the 19 games so far, and Orlando has an 8-4 record when he does. He single handedly outscored the entire Cleveland bench last series, so watch out. He did well against LeBron (don’t let the 40 a night he was dropping on him fool you, it could have just as easily been 50 a night), but I think Kobe is a much touger guard and Pietrus has always been foul prone (3.67 fpg vs LeBron). That means Kobe needs to be very aggressive challenging both the rookie and Pietrus.

• Thank goodness Jameer Nelson is out! He killed us during the regular season — 27.5 ppg, 6.5 apg, 5 rpg on 59% from the field and hit 7-12 from three — and is the type of small, quick, penetrate and dish kind of point guard who kills us year in and year out. While Rafer Alston was a great pick up when Nelson went down and has played solid during the postseason so far, he is far too eratic to be relied upon (38% shooting overall in the playoffs; 39% from three vs Phili, 28% vs Boston, and 38% vs Cleveland). Speaking of unreliable, I know I’m not the only one who is still waiting for Derek Fisher to turn things around. He has been to the Finals and is a career 41% three point shooter during the playoffs. Before everyone calls for Shannon Brown to start over him, ask yourself:  Would you rather start a guy who has played 24,684 minutes or 919 career minutes? While Fish might not be the opening day starter next year, he will start and should continue to get most of the point guard minutes. At least he knows the offense as well as anyone, puts himself in the right spots, and is a threat and does space the floor, even if he is shooting only 36% from the field and 24% from the 3-pt line. Brown is effective, but only because he plays in spurts. I trust the Zen Master to be doing everything he can to pull as much as he can out of his three-headed PG monster. They all bring something different and it’s got us this far. I figure the Magic will be helping off of Fish all series long and he needs to punish them for it. Pau Gasol and Kobe will get him tons of open jumpers every game and he can’t keep shooting as poor as he has (when he hits a game winner, you will all be marvelling at my genius).

• The benches will be important. Orlando uses an eight-man rotation with Anthony Johnson, Pietrus, and Marcin Gortat coming off the bench. Gortat brings size, energy, and toughness and does a great job in only 11.4 mpg. After last series, everyone knows about their best kept secret, Pietrus. Johnson is a solid vet who ocassionally hits threes, does nothing fancy, but is still effective. Our bench is all flash…and hopefully some substance. I always say I care less about them hitting shots (although it does help when Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic can actually hit a shot and stretch the court like they are supposed to, which will in turn increase their intensity on defense), but better to just play aggressive and up tempo because there is no way old man Johnson can stay with Jordan. Also, when the second unit gets the ball in to Gasol, who usually plays heavy minutes with the second unit, their life becomes so much easier. Not to mention, Lamar, the X-factor, who paces the bench with his all around play.

I feel the guys will come out focused tonight and set the ton for the series. Both teams provide match up problems, it will be the coach who makes the best adjustments that will come out on top. I like our chances with PJ at the helm.

Time to Step Up, Lamar Odom

I know this term gets thrown around a lot, but I figured what the heck.

Lamar Odom is the X-Factor.

Role players are so vital to the cause. As such, I wanted to rank the importance of our role players, the guys that will have the largest impact on the outcome of the Finals.

1. Lamar Odom – Mr. Versatile.
2. Trevor Ariza – Creates havoc on D.
3. Andrew Bynum – Can’t teach size, something we will need versus Dwight Howard.
4. Derek Fisher/Jordan Farmar/Shannon Brown – The 3-headed monster, with each guy bringing something different:  Heart, speed, and hunger.
5. Sasha Vujacic/Luke Walton – One solid game from each could be the difference in any one game.

Jerry West and Wilt Chamberlain had Happy Hairston; Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar had Michael Cooper; Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal had Robert Horry; Kobe and Pau Gasol…well, I think most of us are hoping that 10 years from now, we can look back on this season and say those two were able to win it all because of Lamar Odom.

His performance in Games 5 and 6 versus Denver last series was insipring. The numbers might suggest that we do not need him to win (averaged only 8/9 vs the Rockets), but I would argue his good play goes beyond simply making things easier for us; he is what will push us over the top versus the Magic.

Everyone will focus on the points he scored (19 and 20), but it was his high activity level that resulted in those points and led him to be a force on defense (four blocks in Game 5). I think he also took it personal, the rebounding pounding we took in Game 4. He grabbed 14 and eight rebounds in Games 5 and 6 off the bench, helping us cut the rebounding difference from -18 in Game 4 to -1 in Game 5 and +11 in Game 6.

I thought Phil Jackson said it best in an interview during Game 5 when he said that Lamar is so versatile and can affect the game in so many ways that he needs to be active and stay out of foul trouble, so that he can have a positive effect on games, like he did to end the series. We all know, if he plays like he can, we are unstoppable. He is a nightmare match up for anyone, but can be especially tough for Rashard Lewis. LO can defend him out to the 3-point line and will not get beat by him in the post. Plus, Odom has a huge rebounding advantage and if he stays aggressive on offense, maybe he can tire Rashard out a little, so those threes in the fourth quarter will be tougher to knock down.

I know he struggled in the two games versus the Magic during the regular season (the game in Orlando he was awful as he went 1-7 from the field with four points and six fouls; the game in LA was better as he put up 17/9/3 and only had two fouls), but, to me, if there ever was a series for him to take over, this was it. The nice thing about him coming off the bench, is that you do not need him to dominate every single game. If he can pull out two or three top performances, which we all know he can easily do – say 15/10 with great defense — we won’t lose.

Lamar Odom

1st Rd 17.8 ppg 11.0 rpg

2nd Rd 8.3 ppg 8.9 rpg

3rd Rd 11.5 ppg 9.0 rpg

• In the first four games vs the Nuggets, he only averaged 7.5 ppg and 8.0 rpg; in the last two wins, he averaged 19.5 ppg and 11 rpg.
• We are 4-1 in the playoffs when he has a double-double.
• We are 8-2 when he scores in double figures.
• This league is about making shots:  In wins, he is shooting 55% from the field, 57% from three, and 65% from the foul line; in losses, he is only shooting 45% from the field, 33% from three, and 44% from the foul line.
• The biggest factor for Lamar:  He is averaging only 2.3 fouls in wins; 4.3 fouls in losses. He needs to be on the floor to be effective.
• As a side note, he played very well versus the Celtics in the Finals last year, averaging 13.5 ppg, 9 rpg, 3 apg, 1 bpg, on 52% from the field.

I expect big things from The Candy Man (and I don’t mean Michael Olowokandi).

Kobe is Hungry, is Anyone Else?

Clearly, Kobe has been as focused as ever, especially versus Denver. The problem is, does anyone else on the Lakers want to win as bad?

What was most disappointing about Game 4 was our effort. You don’t get out-rebounded by 18, give up 20 offensive rebounds, only force six turnovers, and send a team to the line 49 times without coming out of it with some major concerns.

The rebounding alone goes to show that they wanted it more. They were the aggressors (free throws back me up), and they went out and took that game from us.

Should we — the fans — be concerned?

Or, was it just a case of one team desperate not to go down three games to one in a series? We saw what happens when Denver’s backs are to the wall, now my biggest concern is not Game 5, rather Game 6 and Game 7 (if there is one). We want to put their backs to the wall again, and winning tomorrow night will do just that. The next time we have a chance to put them away for good, will anyone, other than Kobe, step up to the challenge?

I am not yet ready to say that our guys are not hungry (we didn’t lose last year for nothing, I would hope). If we do not come out hyped in each of the next two games, we will without question see another Game 7.

So what have our guys done in the playoffs so far?

The Good

• Kobe Bryant is averaging 29.8 ppg on 46% shooting.
• Pau Gasol is averaging 18.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg, and nearly 2 bpg, on 57% from the field.
• Lamar Odom is averaging 11.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg on 57% shooting.
• Trevor Ariza is averaging 11 ppg, 2.6 apg, and has 27 made 3s and 25 steals in 16 games, while shooting 54% from the field and 50% from 3.
• Our 3-pt shooting has actually been very good: we have four guys shooting above 40% — Odom (11 makes, 45.8%), Ariza (27 makes, 50%), Brown (12 makes, 50%), Farmar (11 makes, 40.7%).

The Bad

• Andrew Bynum is averaging only 6.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg in 17 mpg and has more fouls (49) than field goals (41).
• Derek Fisher is averaging 6.9 ppg on a petrid 34% from the field and 23% from the 3-pt line, even though he is averaging 27 mpg.
• Sasha Vujacic is averaging only 14 mpg and scoring only 3.7 ppg on 27% shooting and 32% from the 3-pt line and has as many turnovers as assists (9).
• Our free throw shooting, outside of Kobe, is simply not good. Farmar (71%), Gasol (68%), Bynum (68%), Walton (67%), Odom (57%), Ariza (56%), Vujacic (1-2 in 218 minutes).

The Point Guards

I know my friends make fun of me for using ESPN’s PER rating because they think it’s a bunch of nerdy stats that says nothing about players. I beg to differ. A perfect example are the three Laker point guards who are mixed in the shuffle this postseason:  Fisher, Farmar, and Brown.

The quick run down on PER: Player Efficiency Rating is a measure of per-minute production standardized such that the league average is 15. In layman’s terms, all you have to know is that it factors a bunch of stats and spits out a number, and that 15.0 is the league average. So, if Ariza were to have a PER of 15.1 in the playoffs (which he actually is) then what it is saying is that he is playing like an average player. More examples: Kobe has a PER of 26.9, Gasol has a 21.3 PER, and LeBron’s PER is a blistering 40.9 (I’m sure ESPN’s John Hollinger, creator of PER, would probably tell us that is the best ever).

Fisher is truly struggling and only has a PER of 6.7; Farmar, who isn’t getting much playing time thanks to match ups and lack of confidence (honestly, can anyone else think of a better reason why Phil Jackson wouldn’t play him more?) has a PER of 14.8, and Brown has a solid PER of 13.1.

Also, the player’s assist percentage (estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on the floor) is interesting. Farmar is tops with 24.4% (even higher then Kobe’s 22.1%), Fisher is at 12.6% (even Ariza is at 13.6%), while Brown is only at 8%.

It bothers me that Sasha, who was great for us last year and even closed out games because of his defense and shooting, and Fisher are getting so much playing time when their PER are the two lowest on the team. I understand that Farmar has his problems on defense, but at least he is knocking down shots and creating others for his teammates. I love Fish, and he will continue to get the minutes vs Chauncey Billups, but I would like to see more PT for Farmar come Finals; whether it is against Mo Williams or Rafer Alston.

Kobe Bryant

Finally, no article is complete without a complete breakdown of the games greatest closer.

vs Utah

27.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.2 3pg, 2.4 spg, 0.4 bpg, 3.8 tpg, 47% fg, 35% 3-pt, 90% ft, 21 fga, 3.4 3pa, 7.8 fta

vs Houston

24.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.6 3pg, 2.2 spg, 1.8 bpg, 1.4 tpg, 42% fg, 36% 3-pt, 87% ft, 21 fga, 4.4 3pa, 6.0 fta

vs Denver

36.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.0 3pg, 1.0 spg, 0.5 bpg, 1.3 tpg, 46% fg, 36% 3-pt, 92% ft, 25 fga, 5.5 3pa, 13.3 fta

Wins

31.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.7 3pg, 1.9 spg, 0.9 bpg, 2.6 tpg, 50% fg, 46% 3-pt, 89% ft, 22 fga, 3.7 3pa, 8.8 fta

Losses

27.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.3 3pg, 1.8 spg, 0.7 bpg, 1.5 tpg, 39% fg, 24% 3-pt, 89% ft, 24 fga, 5.7 3pa, 7.7 fta

Home

29.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.4 3pg, 1.8 spg, 0.8 bpg, 2.9 tpg, 49% fg, 37% 3-pt, 88% ft, 21 fga, 3.9 3pa, 8.1 fta

Away

30.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.7 3pg, 2.0 spg, 0.9 bpg, 1.3 tpg, 42% fg, 33% 3-pt, 87% ft, 24 fga, 5.1 3pa, 8.7 fta

Keys to a Lakers Game One Victory

So, the Lakers move on to face the white hot Denver Nuggets for the chance to compete for a championship.

It wasn’t easy. Those pesky Rockets kept fighting and gave us a run for the money.

Win in four or win in seven, it does not matter. Win by 40 or lose by two, it does not matter.

The only focus for our boys now is the Nuggets and how to slow down their offense.

I debated this series with my friends from Cali, Karim and Randall, and while one was telling me the Nuggets can slow down Kobe Bryant, the other was spouting wisdom. 

Dahntay Jones cannot guard Kobe.

In four games this year, #24 has averaged 31 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.3 apg 1.25 spg on 48% from the field and got to the line 9.8 times per game. This shows me two things:  1) Jones still cannot guard him, and 2) Kobe puts a lot of pressure on Denver’s bigs, hopefully keeping them off the floor with fouls.

First off, Denver was so scared and desperate versus Kobe last year that they put Linas Kleiza on him because no one else could come close to staying with him. Jones is Raja Bell, minus the 3-ball and maybe half the defensive prowess and know how. Raja was smart and had the refs respect (a la Bruce Bowen, circa 2003), which is why he got away with a lot and was effective. Jones is not there. He gets in foul trouble, is a liability offensively — so, again Kobe does not have to work hard on defense and can roam and wreck havoc — and does not even have much size. Whereas Shane Battier has four inches on him, but still had the lateral quickness, which allowed him to effectively get a hand in Kobe’s face.

One thing I really need to admit before we go any further is that I do not give Chauncey Billups nearly enough credit as he is clearly worlds better than I ever want to admit (and realize I am saying this now, before the series has begun).

Of course, having said that, he is not the quick point guard who breaks down our perimeter defense, gets in the paint and either scores or gets open shots for others — granted he can do all of that. I realize that he is a previous Finals MVP winner, while Aaron Brooks simply had a couple of nice games versus us, but we all know the Lakers weakness, and I am not sure if Chauncey can exploit it. However, one thing he will be able to do is run the pick and role effective.

He is a bigger guard, one that I think Derek Fisher can do okay against, and one whom I think Shannon Brown will be used a lot against. The only downside to that is that Jordan Farmar was just starting to pick his game up and give us something we need, which is dribble penetration.

As for the Nuggs bigs, I tend to side with my buddy Randall. They are a joke. Since when was Nene a tough dude? He gets in foul trouble so often, he has Camby wondering how on earth a guy can get hurt so often.

Kenyon Martin is tough as nails, I’ll give you that. I will assume that we go with Andrew Bynum in the starting line up for Game One, which means if Pau Gasol had trouble against Houston’s 6′6 center (Chuck Hayes), how will he fair versus KMart? But, he too gets in foul trouble, and is as volatile as Carmelo Anthony.

Speaking of Melo, he is the key to me. Get under his skin early, allow him to take himself out of the series (not hard to do, seeing Karim and I witnessed a couple of his meltdowns first hand at STAPLES Center vs the Clippers).

I also like Trevor Ariza on him. It is a similar match up with Ron Artest (strength and size wise) and at first glance it would appear like a mismatch seeing Melo is ten times more effective on the offensive end than Artest. However, I am willing to give Ariza the benefit of the doubt, because I think his length might disrupt what he wants to do when he puts the ball on the floor, plus he can get a hand up on shots. When Melo’s shot is on and he’s getting to the line he is one of the toughest covers in the league.

But I think between Ariza, maybe a little of Lamar Odom, plus I think even Luke Walton will have some success and don’t laugh or snear at me when I say that, he was real physical with Artest last series.

You will also like to know that Melo is only 18-8 in his career versus the Lake Show. We are 3-1 vs them this year, 7-0 last year (including a sweep in the first round), 1-3 in 06-07, 2-1 in 05-06, 2-2 in 04-05, 3-1 in 03-04. We have won 10 of the last 11 versus them.

I guess overall, I am just not that high on the Nuggets and am not that concerned. Granted, I can say this because I am a fan. I would hope after the Lakers failed to take the Rockets serious after Yao Ming went down, that we would now know better and look at the Nuggets match up as if it were the San Antonio Spurs at full strength!!!

Everyone is high on the Nuggets and Cavaliers because they dominated…but who exactly? I have been saying the Hornets were a bigger mess than the Jazz and Dirk Nowitzki’s supporting cast (Josh Howard, Jason Kidd, and Jason Terry) were disappointing. On the East Coast, LeBron beat a horrible Pistons team that had given up well before the playoffs and a Hawks team that was lucky to beat the Miami Wades and really lack the fire power to compete in the playoffs.

Hopefully, both teams are in for a rude awakening as the Lakers and Magic have already been tested, and are hopefully more prepared for what lies ahead.

I know no one likes to admit it, but the Celtics, last year, went through hell and came out of it on top after three grueling matches in the first three rounds. They had seen everything and were surprised by nothing by the teim they met the Lakers in the Finals, while our boys were not tested and made it there fairly easily.

I believe the Lakers will learn from the last series and will be a better team for it.

I expect better play from Bynum, a good series from Odom who should be a match up problem for any of their bigs, and a lot of minutes from Brown who has the body to go up against Billups and has shown some offensive firepower to go with it.

This will not be as physical a series as I have heard some “experts” try to make it out to be. You will see up and down games and while the Nuggets are much improved (or at least more interested) on defense this year, they are still an offensive oriented team first.

I expect both teams to try to create turnovers with pressure defense and get out and run.

If this is a battle of offensives, and as such, I expect the better, more effecient offense to come out on top, as long as we can execute.

My guess:  Lakers execute on offense and play enough defense to win in six (nothing like silencing a home crowd by winning a series on the opponents home floor).

Purple and Gold Nuggets (no pun intended)

• Quarter by quarter:  The Lakers outscored the Nuggets in the first quarter 27.5 to 20.5; in the second quarter, the Nuggets outscored the Lakers 29.75 to 24.75; the Lakers had the edge in the third quarter 26.5 to 22.25; and were about even, 22.25 to 22 in favor of the Nuggets. We come out of the gates real fast to start the game adn the second half, but have to be weary of the second quarter let downs. This is an important quarter because this is the battle of the second units, with our bench needing to prove they are up to the challenge of keeping up with J.R. Smith and company.
• So far, our bench has been outscored 146-108 in four games versus the Nuggets. Our low was seven points, while our high was 40. The Nuggets bench outscored ours 47-7 in the only game we lost.
• Two of the three wins we shot a worse percentage, but out rebounded them in both games, by 15 in one game and five in the other (we grabbed more rebounds in every game against them this year, and had a 200-173 edge overall, or 50-43.25 per game).
• The three point shooting has been horrendous for both teams, who are each hovering around only five made threes per game vs each other. The Lakers are shooting only 23%; the Nuggets only 25%.
• The biggest advantage we have by far is our offensive rebounding edge. We are grabbing 17 per game to their 9.5. This has allowed us to average over 10 more field goal attempts per game (88-77.8) all while shooting more free throws (34-28.8).
• We are grabbing nine steals to their 7.3, which we use to start up our fast breaks. However, they are leading in fast break points per game at 12.25 to 10.5.
• We have a slight edge in turnovers per game at 13.5 to 15.8.
• We are averaging 100.8 ppg and are holding them to only 94.8 ppg.
• Our Big Three (Pau/Andrew/Lamar) are averaging 39.8 ppg, 30.6 rpg, 7.3 apg, so as I said before, the Nuggets front line, even with Chris “Birdman” Andersen, does not scare me.
• Pau Gasol versus the Nuggets is averaging 18.3 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 3 apg (including 27/19/3 in the last game).
• Lamar Odom is averaging 10.5 ppg, 9 rpg, 2 apg.
• Andrew Bynum is averaging 11 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.3 apg (including 16/7 in his first game back from injury).
• Trevor Ariza is averaging 5.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.5 apg on only 22% shooting.
• Derek Fisher is averaging 7.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3 apg on only 38% from the field and 31% from three.