Much Adu About Nothing

So Antawn Jamison just got traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Their offense just added a 20 point scorer where there was none before. They finally have a power forward that can stretch the floor and put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. If they were not the favorites to come out of the East and challenge the Los Angeles Lakers in the Finals before, they certainly are now.

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are rumored to be adding Nate Robinson as their sixth man and have been in numerous trade talks surrounding the aging Ray Allen for a younger and talented wing like the Sacramento Kings’ Kevin Martin or the Philadelphia 76ers’ Andre Iguodala.

Does this mean it is time for the Lakers to panic and feel pressured to make a move?

They currently sit at 42-13. That is six games ahead of the second place Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference and only a game and a half behind the Cavs for the best overall record in the league. This after Pau Gasol missed 17 games, Ron Artest missed five games, Kobe Bryant missed four games, and Andrew Bynum missed four games.

The rumors for combo guard Kirk Hinrich of the Chicago Bulls have been flying rampant. The key to a deal also appears to be the one thing that will stop any trade from happening. The Lakers are insisting that a third team takes on Sasha Vujacic’s $5.48 million that he is due next season. This is a deal breaker.

While Kirk would bring some much needed defense to the point guard spot, I do not believe it would be overall advantage for the Lakers. He is highly intelligent, can knock down an open shot (very important when plaing next to Kobe), and has had some experience playing in the triangle in Chicago.

However, Derek fisher has been our steadiest player, having started all 55 games this year, the only Laker to do so. He is shooting nearly 37% from three since the beginning of December, and has raised his overall field goal percentage to 44% in February. He takes care of the ball, rarely makes mistakes, puts himself in the right position on both offense and defense, and I still have all the faith in the world in his ability to knock down the big shot at any point come playoff time. While he struggles to defend the quick points in the league, he finds ways to get things done. He’s smart and tough and is a steady presence.

More important, Jordan Farmar has played well enough of late, that I want to see where he ends up by the end of the season. Bringing on Hinrich would mean either trading Farmar, or cutting down his minutes dramatically. Jordan is now shooting 48% in 2010 and has hit 29 of 69 threes. His 4-4 from three was a big spark for a team that was missing Kobe and was playing in Utah, one of the more hostile places in the league. His 12 points, two steals, and two threes in the Rose Garden was huge as well, when the Lakers stopped a nine game losing streak in Portland.

Shannon Brown is obviously another reason why I do not want to see the Lakers make a move. In Kobe’s absence, Brown posted averages as a starter in the last three games of 15.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, one three and one steal.

The three headed monster that is running the point in LA these days seems to be working out just fine. There is no need to panic in LA LA Land. Let the start of the real season begin.

I’m back…

Hello one and all. It is true. I have been gone missing. It’s not all my fault. In the past six months, during my absense from writing, I got a job, planned a wedding, attended a wedding as both a groomsman and a groom, honeymooned on a 7-day cruise through the Western Caribbean (which I highly recommend), moved into a new home, got my wife a new job at my place of work, oh, and made two very important purchases: 1) a new big screen to enjoy all my Lakers games, 2) and of course NBA League Pass since it’s the only way to get EVERY Lakers game when you live on the East Coast.

The saying is true. It’s much easier to fall out of a habit than it is to get back into it. Even with all that going on, that doesn’t excuse my long hiatus. But, just because I’ve been out of sight from my readers, doesn’t mean I haven’t been paying attention to our boys (reference #1 & 2 above). At night, instead of writing for your enjoyment, I have been selfish and chose to watch Lakers games instead.

But I’m back…and without further adeu…

Was it the fact the Lakers have lost two in a row (that’s right, I have the Bucks game paused right now…at all times I am at best one or two games behind, so no one spoil the last game for me), the fact my brother in law who could care less about sports told me I should start writing again, the fact that my editor in chief stopped getting on me to write and is now enjoying a week in Grenada, or the fact my uncle called me tonight starting the conversation off “Jordan Farmar and Andrew Bynum for Chris Bosh!?” Probably a mix of the bunch.

Regardless, I guess you could say I finally had to scratch that perpetual itch that just wouldn’t go away.

Now I’ll make this short and sweet. The trade rumor got me to thinking. Is Farmar ever going to be a starter? My uncle thinks he could (I mean he is only 23), just not in the triangle.

Is Bynum ever going to be able to truly coincide next to Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol? Is he ready to be a team’s top scorer or even a number two scorer at the fragile age of 22?

More importantly, can a supremely talented Bosh fit in with Kobe and Pau? Who plays third fiddle? I believe Gasol has it in him to step back a little in scoring and let Bosh continue to get his 20 a game.

Now I’m hearing it will not happen because of financial difficulties. Bynum is a base year player, which comes into play if he gets traded. Do not worry, I ran the numbers and found a scenario that works. Throw in Adam Morrison’s expiring $5.3m and you got yourself a deal.

Bosh and Gasol are both power forwards, but to me, either could play center. Bosh is shorter than Bynum, but still lengthy and much more athletic and explosive. He is a much better rebounder (sixth in the league at 11.3/game), and plays solid D. He is versatile and has the skill set to fit into the triangle. He can pass, shoot, post up, and even has a decent handle for a big. The talent is unquestioned.

The other big factor is whether he would resign with the Lakers (his contract is up at the end of the year). The bigger question is to figure out how the Lakers roster could handle three max to near max salaries. Kobe is set to make nearly $25m next year, Pau at nearly $18m, and Bosh would likely get a starting salary near $15m. The three players’ combined salary of $58m is more than this year’s salary cap ($57.7m), with the luxury tax at $69.92.

Then again, Bynum will make nearly $14m next year and Farmar is up for an extention and you figure should comand at least $5m easy. So, maybe it will save the Lakers some money. It will also free up time for fan favorite Shannon Brown and give Sasha Vujacic a chance to prove to everyone why he’s worth an even $5m this season.

My other thought would be to look ahead. I do not like thinking about it, but at some point we all must accept the fact that Kobe will one day no longer resemble the player he is today. I will give him another three to four years of top quality basketball. But, what do the Lakers do to plan ahead for the post-Kobe era? Is it Bynum? Can the young fella wait that long or will his ego one day get the best of him?

Bosh is however only 25 (26 in March) and I think his athleticism makes him a good fit next to Gasol (who is going to be a Laker for a long time). I would be a very happy fan with those two running the show three years from now.

For the Raptors, turning a star player who is mostly out the door into a quality young point and a growing young center is not that bad. I know the rest of the league is rooting against it, but the Laker fans should certainly welcome it because Bosh is a fine young player who would make us much, much better (if that’s at all possible).

Whatever happens, I want all Lakers fans to do me a favor. Really take in this season. You know it is a good season when a single loss can shock and piss you off at the same time. Even if it’s the first loss in a 10 game span. This why you must enjoy every minute of it. Good things will continue to happen for this team because we are talented, we are hungry, and we are playing really good defense.

That’s a scary combination for a team that just won it all.

Laker pride!

The Spurs Are Again the Lakers Top Competition

“I play because the 37th draft pick usually doesn’t.” — Nick Van Exel, ex-Laker point guard

The San Antonio Spurs, with their off-season transactions, have once again established themselves, at least on paper, as the favorites to take the top spot in the National Basketball Association’s Western Conference…behind the Los Angeles Lakers, of course!

What this means is that the Lakers are in no way a lock to make it back to the Finals next year. Despite the additions to the top teams in the West — Ron Artest to the Lakers, Shawn Marion to the Mavericks, Andre Miller to the Blazers — it was the moves the Spurs made that really caught my attention. Last year’s first round exit was as surprising as anything that happened in the NBA last season, which was why I was not surprised to see the usually fiscally responsible Spurs take a whatever-it-takes approach into the 2009 off-season and fill in their gaps. What was surprising, was the success they had in bringing in some exceptional talent.

The Additions

The Spurs needed to get more athletic…in comes the versatile Richard Jefferson, who came over from the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, and Fabricio Oberto — or in NBA terms, for nothing. The team will of course welcome his career averages of 17.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.0 apg and hope his improved shooting continues — he shot a career high 39.7% from three last season, something that could easily improve with low post threat Tim Duncan providing open jumpers. He will also give Tony ‘one-man-fast-break’ Parker a running mate in transition.

The Spurs needed another big man to help out versus the Lakers size…in comes Antonio McDyess. They were able to steal him away from the Detroit Pistons. McDyess will most likely start next to Duncan and instantly becomes his best big man side kick since the great David Robinson, despite the fact he’ll be 35 at the start of the season. While McDyess isn’t nearly the high-fly act he once was before all the knee problems, he will certainly provide the Spurs with some bulk to root the Lakers big guys out of the post and keep them off the boards. His 9/8 two years ago and 10/10 last year with the Pistons was very impressive considering he was only getting 30 mpg. The Spurs would be thrilled to see 10 rpg while providing an efficient 18 foot jump shot and solid defense.

The Spurs needed to get younger…in comes DaJuan Blair; the stud college bruiser, who dropped from guaranteed lottery to surprising second rounder, was snatched up by the ever aware Spurs who didn’t hesitate taking him with the 37th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. I’m not saying he will one day replace Duncan, but he will certainly be an effective player and give them someone to bang bodies with the Lakers big men. I just read that he is considering sporting the #37 to match his draft pick and all I can think of is Nick ‘the Quick’ Van Exel-lent, who too was once drafted #37 overall way back in the 1993 NBA Draft. I can still see my giant poster of Nick stapled to the ceiling over my bed in the house I grew up in and I remember going to sleep every night reading the quote “I play because the 37th draft pick usually doesn’t” over and over again. I knew that Van Exel played such inspired ball because he wanted to make every team that passed him up pay. Watch out Laker fans, because I can see Blair taking the same approach and will be the driving force behind him becoming a beast on the boards, and a major pain for the Lakers.

The Matchups

Point Guards — The speed of Parker and reserve George Hill will still cause all kinds of problems for Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown. However, I am interested to see how well Brown can utilize his size and strength to try and bully Parker.

Wings — A healthy Manu will go a long way in how successful the Spurs will be vs the Lakers. On defense, he is always active trying to disrupt things. On offense, the things he can do with the ball in his hands causes all kinds of problems defensively for the Lakers. Jefferson might not be able to get into Kobe like Bowen used to, but talk about an upgrade on the offensive end. Kobe will have to stay honest on defense, regardless of whether he’s defending Manu or RJ, and won’t be able to roam freely. They still can bring in sharp shooters Roger Mason Jr. and Michael Finley off the bench. The good news for the Lakers, with Artest and Kobe, we have two elite perimeter defenders to better match up against the new look Spurs.

Bigs — It starts with Duncan, but having McDyess to help defend Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol is a big help. The rookie Blair seems like a tough match up because of his strength as he should be able to bully the Lakers for rebounds. They also added the shot blocking of Theo Ratliff and still have Matt Bonner to space the floor. Lamar Odom becomes even more essential as his length and versatility are key. He can defend Timmy in the low post, run out to a shooter like Bonner, or to help box out and out reach a guy like Blair.

It all adds up to one thing:  The Spurs are back. The scary thing is, the four-time champs actually seem better than ever. Don’t worry Laker faithful, our addition of Artest will help us out immensely. Either way, it should be fun to watch this mighty Spurs team go up against our champion Lakers — and if we’re lucky, we’ll see a Western Conference Finals next year for the ages. May the best team win!

What Laker Should Get More PT?

Per 36 Minutes

*The idea is you take a players’ stats and average it out over 36 minutes to get an idea of what their production might be if you gave them starters minutes.

I think the rotation will go as follows:  Andrew Bynum should start again this year while Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar will go back and forth over who gets the bulk of the backup point guard minutes. I also see Brown severely limiting Sasha Vujacic’s playing time and Luke Walton should get the reserve small forward duties. That leaves Josh Powell and D.J. Mbenga as more of an insurance policy in case one of our bigs go down. Meanwhile, Adam Morrison, the former #3 overall pick a few years ago, is the wild card. We still need to surround Kobe Bryant with shooters, so let’s see if Sasha and Adam pick up the slack. The Lake Show is looking at a strong nine man rotation for the 2009-2010 season.

This could be the return of the bench mob!

Andrew Bynum

17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.2 bpg

If Drew was able to stay out of foul trouble, you can see how effective he can be. Even though he is maybe the third or fourth option on offense, he still puts up what amounts to 18 points per night. His 10 boards and two blocks are really what you want to see him focus on next year. The offense will come through put backs and ally oops, but it’s nice to know he does have a number of good post moves in his arsenal. He will still be part of the big three (big men) and I’m sure they will all take turns on offense. I see him getting back to his pre-injury self next year and let’s pray he has a full, healthy season.

Unless he really advances, Lamar Odom still needs time, so I don’t see more than 30-32 minutes.

Jordan Farmar

12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.7 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.5 3pg

This will be the most interesting battle in training camp. The more I look at it, the less I think that either Brown or Farmar will take Fisher’s spot in the starting lineup, even though I predicted Farmar would even before last season. But, who will be his main backup? I think Jordan is certainly the more traditional point guard, who wants to penetrate and create opportunities for others, but he just needs to build up more consistency.

This could be the year he takes over backup duties and plays 20-25 minutes a night.

Shannon Brown

15.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.6 3pg (in 18 gms w/Lakers)

To me, he stands as the one guy who should without question get more playing time next year, depending on his improvement in the off-season. The triangle offense takes years to learn, but he still managed playing time to end the season last year without much knowledge of the offense, so you can see what might happen if he actually picks it up in training camp. I think the three-headed monster that is our point guard situation might not be ideal to the three players involved (including Derek Fisher and Farmar), but if they accept it, they can focus on going all out while they are in and really cause problems for opponents. Who knows, maybe each guy will pick up full court all game long.

At the very least he will split time backing up the point and Kobe Bryant, possibly playing 12-15 minutes per game.

Luke Walton

10.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1 spg

You either love him or you hate him. The classic “system” player. Well guess what, the $4.8m man is in the perfect system. The triangle calls for bright players who can pass, shoot, and play multiple positions. Say what you will about Luke (like whether he deserved a 6 year, $30m contract two season ago), but the guy can play, and fits in well when surrounded by talent. Anyone that doubts his production — and I think he has more value outside of his stats — realize his 10/5/5 in 36 minutes puts him up there with any other seventh or eighth man in any one’s rotation…and he might be our 10th guy.

20 minutes per game is more than enough.

Sasha Vujacic

12.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.1 spg, 2.3 3pg

Me being a shooter, I can attest to how tough it is to get any kind of rhythm when you are playing limited minutes a night and Sasha only got 16 mpg last year. It is difficult to tell where The Machine goes from here. Do we chalk last season up to an off year (39% from the field, 36% from three), or did he play exceptionally well at the right time (45% from the field, 44% from three the year before, his contract year; he also hit 31 threes in 21 playoff games that year)? I think Brown might get more minutes backing up Kobe, just to make room for him, which will only put more pressure on the foreign gunner to produce in limited minutes.

8-12 minutes until he proves he just had an off year.

Josh Powell

12.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 bpg

It’s funny how everyone passes over a guy like Powell, but goes crazy over a guy like Brandon Bass. Powell’s numbers are very comparable to Bass’ per 36 minutes (15.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg) only Powell will cost the Lakers a little under a million dollars next season, while some team will be willing to dump the full mid-level on Bass in the range of $5.8m. Powell can rebound, play serviceable defense and has a killer pick and pop game out to 20 feet.

15 minutes is his limit.

Didier Mbenga

12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2 spg, 4.8 bpg

You can see right away that Mbenga stands out for his defense. He is not in for very long stretches, so maybe that is why he goes all out and gets steals and blocks. If he got more time, it is safe to say he would not be able to sustain the pace he plays at, plus, he gets a lot of fouls, so I doubt he would ever be able to average five blocks per game. However, in short spans, he is a great back up.

He can give you a solid 5-10 minutes per game.

Adam Morrison

8.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.5 apg (in only 8 gms w/Lakers)

You know there is not enough minutes to go around and Mr. Gonzaga might be the odd man out. Unless his outside shooting really improves, he picks up the triangle real quick, and he dispels the slow white guy can’t guard anyone myth, then I don’t see him getting much time.

5-8 minutes could be earned; if not just to see what he’s got.

Thug Life

So, in light of the past 48 hours, I have decided to scrap parts four and five of my series, Busy Off-Season.

I was all ready to put together an article showing how the Lakers needed a gritty veteran big man. Despite winning a championship last year, we were missing that tough minded individual. A thug if you will; or at least an enforcer. Never did it occur to me that this would come in the form of Ron Artest.

While there are certain inherent risks when signing a guy like Artest — will he charge after a guy in STAPLES for giving him a funny look — you certainly can’t deny the man’s talent. Only a few seasons ago, he was playing in Indiana and moved his way into the MVP race with his all-out play on both ends of the court. Everyone talks about how versatile Lamar Odom is, but have you seen this guy?!?

At only 29 years of age, and still in his prime — having never really had a contract to match his skills — he chose to sign with the champs for the mid-level exception, which is enough proof for me to think that he wants to go to a winning situation and make it work. I realize this is not a good year to expect a huge contract and that is more what forced Ron into this situation, but now that he is here, I want to believe that his only concern will be to win a ring. He is older and wiser and has come a long way since his Detroit ROCK City days.

The two proposed mid-level deals that I mentioned before are:  Three years, $18.5m, or five years, $33.5m. This will not affect the Lakers ability to re-sign Lamar Odom, however, since he is our free agent and we own his Bird-Rights; meaning we can sign him for whatever it takes, regardless of whether we are over the cap. (Everything you would ever want to know about the NBA’s salary cap can be found here, including Bird rights and soft cap).

With the news that Ron Artest will for all intensive purposes be a Laker come July 8th, the Lake Show will get the best perimeter defender who is built like a tank. At 6′7, 260 lbs Artest is a force to be reckoned with and he’s got a mean streak to go with it (and we’ll take it). The one thing you know he will bring every night is an intensity and a great desire to win.

For all his ‘problems,’ playing on the court has never been the issue. He averaged 17.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 3.3 apg, as well as 1.5 spg and a career high 2.2 3pg, shooting 40% from behind the arc in his lone season in Houston last year. He is a unique talent, a rare specimen of brute force and skill. Not only does he outweigh Al Horford by 15 pounds, he can defend everyone from Tony Parker to Kobe Bryant to dare I say he could put up one heck of a fight bodying up Shaquille O’Neal.

As far as the rift on the court you saw last season between Ron and Kobe, I think it was more due to competitive juices (and Ron wanting to get under his skin). I don’t see them being a problem together. Even with all the trash talking and elbows flying, there is a mutual respect you could see between the two. Besides, I think Kobe and Phil Jackson will be able to control Ron’s antics off the court and on the court he’ll be just fine. You figure Dennis Rodman was much more difficult and distracting than Artest, so I think it will be child’s play for Phil next year.

My Uncle was actually the one to break the news to me the other day when he heard it on LA’s sport talk and he immediately questioned me about Ron Ron’s shot selection. It’s true, he has never had the best selection, and never really shot a great percentage from the field (42% for his career; only shot above 45% in a season once). However, what I saw last year, especially in the playoffs, and especially after Yao Ming got hurt, he became the number one option. At that point, he proved he is not the type of player that can carry a team and I think he felt he had to do too much, thus the poor shots. Luckily for the Lakers and Artest, he won’t be expected to be the number one, or even number two option thanks to Kobe and Pau Gasol.

I still want to recognize the fact that things can go one of two ways:  Either he focuses less on scoring and more on defense, accepting his role, or he can’t handle all the attention that Kobe and Pau and even Lamar Odom will get and ends up shooting way too many shots because he is not getting enough. While he only played in a few games last year with Yao and Tracy McGrady — the clear cut one and two guy — at least he showed he could step back and fit in.

I was the first to say the most important thing the Lakers need to do this off-season is sign Trevor Ariza, and while I hate to see him go, I am glad the Lakers resisted over paying for him. I thought based on where Ariza is at in his young career, as well as the poor economy and few teams with the money to spend or want to spend, that he would end up with a four year, $20m contract. The Lakers were willing to give him a five year, $33.5m contract and he felt like that was a slap in the face. For everything Ariza does, it is the things he doesn’t do (no handle, can’t create his own shot, not a lock down defender) that make me think he wasn’t worth any more. Then you factor in the fact that he needs a player like Kobe to get him good looks to be effective, and he is only worth the mid-level.

Besides, Artest is 10 times the player than Ariza is now and showed that, while he has worlds of talent, he can also just be one of the guys. In 27 games in which Artest played third fiddle to Yao and McGrady, he averaged 14.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 2.8 apg. He also shot 38.6% from the field in those games versus 40.1% on the season. He may have scored three fewer points per game, but took fewer shots, as you would expect. The team still was 17-10 (.629) and could have been much better if guys stayed healthy and got more time to gel together on the court. I have no worries whether Artest can make it work on the court.

My concerns, if any, are over his health. His teammate from last year, McGrady, is the one known to be brittle, but Ron has actually never played an 82 game season in his 10 years in the league. He has only played 70+ in four seasons (although two others he played in 69 games). He has missed an average of 21.6 games per year. Okay, so 72 of those games were due to his year long suspension, so really he has missed an average of 14 games a year due to injury. I think that’s just more a result of his physical play, and being in his prime, I’m not too concerned (plus the Lakers can always fill in his spot with Luke Walton for a short period of time).

The amazing thing is that Artest will fit into the triangle perfectly. He can bring the ball up, distribute, create for others or himself, post up, step out and hit the three (did I mention he hit more than two a game last year and shot it 40%). Best of all, Kobe will never have to defend the other team’s best player. And if we do face a team like the Spurs in the playoffs, we can put Artest on Richard Jefferson and Kobe on Manu Ginobili (or visa versa) and shut those two down.

There could not have been a more important signing and I am going to go out on a limb here:  The team the Lakers will put on the floor next year will without question be the most talented team ever assembled…at least on paper. Factor in Kobe (30), Artest (29), Gasol (28), and Lamar (29) are all in their prime. If Andrew Bynum stays healthy and continues to improve, that will just be icing on the cake!

As long as the Lakers re-sign Odom to something reasonable ($8m a year), this team will most certainly have a three to four year window to win that many rings, even with the rest of the league improving.

I want to leave you with a good point made by ESPNs Ric Bucher. While everyone will agree that the Lakers may not have won without Ariza — and the fact that he is young and only going to get better — this swap for Artest is certainly a better move for the team in the short term. The Lakers don’t have to wait for Ariza to get better, they can now rely on a ‘chiseled-vet’ and a known commodity.

Shannon Brown, an Important Part of the Future

Part III of the five part series, Busy Off-Season. Lakers need to find a replacement for Derek Fisher…could Shannon Brown be the answer?

What a busy week the NBA just had.

Sure the draft was pretty uneventful, but how exciting is it when three of the top teams in the league all make major moves and upgrades beginning with the Cavaliers stealing Shaquille O’Neal away from the we-need-to-drop-salary-and-quick Suns. Give credit to the Spurs too for breaking out of their safe shell and actually being ultra aggressive. They made a big move turning a few nobodies into one Richard Jefferson, who I think embodies the Spurs system — both in his calm demeanor and his ability to play defense. They will welcome his fresh legs and versatility. Then you have the Magic, who just lost to the Lakers in the Championship game and seemingly lost their glue guy, Hedo Turkoglu, who balked at their qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent. However, they bounced back in a hurry by trading away useless Rafer Alston and promising youngster Courtney Lee and getting back Vince “I’m-32-and-still-have-a-ton-to-prove” Carter.

With the rest of our immediate competition upping the ante, could you imagine a situation in which the Lakers do not resign Trevor Ariza or Lamar Odom?

Better yet, what about this young kid Shannon Brown?

Now, was he the reason the Lakers won the 2009 NBA Championship? No. Was he a vital cog in the engine that is the new Lakers dynasty? No. So, you may be wondering why I am devoting an entire article to a guy who barely played in 39 games for us?

The answer is, I saw all I need to know that he will one day play a very important role in the Lakers future.

A big question that keeps coming up this off-season was who is the Lakers point guard of the future? Ironically, Brown and Jordan Farmar both came into the league in 2006 and were selected 25th and 26th, respectively. Jordan was drafted to eventually take over the reigns, but in his first year he barely managed 15 minutes per game behind Smush Parker. The following year was a better situation. Fisher was back in town, which gave Farmar a one or two year window to learn, grow and mature behind a consummate pro. It also helped that the Lakers drafted yet another point guard, Javaris Crittenton with the 19th pick, which really motivated Jordan to push himself, as he eventually doubled his scoring output from his rookie year.

Blessed with an explosive first step and a 42-inch vertical that allows him to finish at the rim, he seemed well on his way. However, he has yet to sustain the few flashes of brilliance here and there, and his third year progress took a hit after a December injury sidelined him for a month. Even when he came back, his shot was as shaky as his defense and his confidence seemed at an all-time low — he has yet to get it back, shooting just 31% from three in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Brown struggled to find minutes after being drafted by the Cavaliers. An injury in his first year stunted his growth and he made a number of appearances in the D-League. From there, he got traded to the Bulls and eventually signed a one year deal with the Bobcats. After a solid game vs the Lakers, he was traded again, but this time to the City of Angels. He rode the pine for most of February, March, and April, but in the final five games of the season, Phil Jackson must have saw something in practice that made him decide to let the newcomer be the first guy off the bench. Brown rewarded Phil with a number of highlight reels as well as a solid stat line: 7 pts, 2 reb, and 2 ast in only 16 minutes of play.

Then came the playoffs. Could he have been playing for a new contract? Or, was he just happy to find himself contributing positively to a championship caliber team in the playoffs? (My guess is the latter).

Either way, I feel this is almost as important a sign for general manager Mitch Kupchak, as the signings of Ariza and Odom. I see the selling of two of their three draft picks as a clear sign they want to keep Brown. By not adding a young player, Brown (only 23 years old), becomes that much more important. Every team needs young players to sustain success. Besides, he simply showed me too much during the final two months of the season to let him slip away.

We also know PJ loves big point guards and at 6′4, 211 pounds, Brown is just that. He is also extremely athletic, can defend, and oh, did I mention he hit 48% of his threes in the playoffs? I can envision a future lineup of Brown and Ariza giving us unparalleled athleticism, the likes the league has not seen.

Granted, there might be another team who feels he could be had for cheap and offer a bit more, but I don’t see there being too much competition for him. I believe, regardless of the incredibly small sample size we have to go by, that he is at least worth the risk. I could see a three year contract worth $5.5 million. It won’t break the bank or stop us from re-signing any of the other major players, but it will guarantee he has at least a fair shot at becoming Derek Fisher’s replacement.

Maybe he won’t become an all-star, but I expect big things from the kid.

Not bad for a guy who was just a ‘throw-in’ on the Vladimir Radmanovic and Adam Morrison deal that was really only made to save Jerry Buss a few measly millions.

Fear Not, Lamar Odom Will Remain a Laker

Part II of the five part series, Busy Off-Season. I will now delve into the obstacles teams will have in trying to sign Lamar Odom away from the Lakers.

Lamar Odom might be the most unique player in the league. Certainly one of the most versatile players — known as the Human Swiss Army Knife.  Standing 6′10, long arms, great handle, strong, smooth, and athletic. Able to rebound, lead the fast break and either finish or dish with the best of them. He can also step out and knock down a three. He can defend everyone on the floor, from Dwight Howard to switching out on little Aaron Brooks.

He also has his flaws. With so much talent, it is well documented that he rarely uses everything at his disposal and is wildly inconsistent. He has always been an enigma. The guy could average 25/10/5 every night and still defend the opponents best low post player. He showed his versatility in the Finals by keeping up with Rashard Lewis. Instead, he is closer to a 13/10/3 guy, which is still good, but no where near his potential.

At nearly 30 years of age, he is in the prime of his career. He proved that he is a guy that thrives when the pressure is off his shoulders. He is at the point where he can accept a lessor role — even sixth man — and be a major part of a championship team. However, I think it is clearly time to throw out the term ‘potential’ and realize he is what he is.

Is it a coincidence that it all came together during his last year of his contract? Perhaps. He still averaged 18/11 versus the Jazz who clearly had no answer for him and came through with another solid performance versus the Magic in the Finals, posting 13/8 to go along with one steal and one block per game. He also held Rashard in check for all but one game. He really made a difference in Game 2 (19 pts on eight of nine from the field, 3 blk and 1 stl) and in the series clincher (17 pts, 10 reb, including three huge threes where he finished the playoffs 18-35 overall from the three point line, 51%).

So, the question becomes, what will he command in the off-season, or is he sincere when he says he is willing to accept less to stay with his favorite team?

I think it is much more simpler than that; I just don’t think there is anyone out there who can off him a contract he can’t refuse.

The only teams with significant cap space this summer are Detroit (approximately $24m), Memphis ($24m), and Oklahoma City ($16m). Atlanta has $17m, but will most likely use it on restricted free agent Marvin Williams, and they still have to figure out what to do with Mike Bibby. Toronto would have $14m, but it sounds like they want to keep Shawn Marion. Then there are about four teams who will all have around $7-$8m in cap space (Portland, Indiana, Minnesota, and New Jersey), but I think teams will need at least need to offer $10m/yr to have a chance at Lamar. Besides, most teams are looking to shed money, not take on big contracts.

Detroit is probably the biggest threat and Lamar could replace the inside/outside presence that Rasheed Wallace gave them. But to me, if they are willing to throw $10m or more at him, they may as well go after All Star Carlos Boozer.

You also have to factor in that there are other big time free agents (other than Boozer) who will eat up most of the open cap space teams have. The list includes Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Marion, Rasheed, Jason Kidd, Ben Gordon, Andre Miller, and Mike Bibby.

Then you have to consider every team is obviously saving up for the 2010 free agent market, which will include LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire.

A sign and trade for Lamar would have it’s problems. Do the Lakers really want to give him to a team, so that he can become a match up nightmare for us? And, if we are willing to sign him and take back another contract, is there anyone out there that would give us more value than Lamar? Maybe a Shane Battier (excellent defender and spot up shooter) or Mike Miller (shooter and creator) would have their fit, but who knows. This team, with Lamar, won it all.

If the Lakers are going to sign him, what would be a reasonable contract? In order to answer that question, I compiled a list of players who got contracts at a similar age (28-32) in the past seven years to see where Lamar might fall.

• Tim Thomas — 4 yrs $24m, signed in ‘06 at age 29 (16.7 PER in 20 playoff games in ‘06)
• Antonio Daniels — 5 yrs $30m, signed in ‘05 at age 30 (18 PER in ‘05)
• James Posey – 4 yrs $25m, signed in ‘08 at age 31 (14.2 PER in 26 playoff games in ‘08)
• Mark Blount — 6 yrs $38.5m, signed in ‘04 at age 28 (16 PER in ‘04)
• Marcus Camby — 6 yrs $57m, signed in ‘04 at age 30 (17.8 PER in ‘04)
• Corey Maggette — 5 yrs $50m, signed in ‘08 at age 28 (19.3 PER ‘08)
• Steve Nash — 6 yrs $66m, signed in ‘04 at age 30 (20.5 PER in ‘04)
• Antawn Jamison — 4 yrs $50m, signed in ‘08 at age 32 (20.3 PER in ‘08)
• Peja Stojakovic — 5 yrs $64m, signed in ‘06 at age 29 (16.7 PER in ‘06)
• Baron Davis — 5 yrs $65m, signed in ‘08 at age 29 (19.8 PER in ‘08)
• Ben Wallace — 4 yrs $60m, signed in ‘06 at age 31 (17.5 PER in ‘06)
• Vince Carter — 5 yrs $78m, signed in ‘07 at age 30 (21.8 PER in ‘07)
• Elton Brand — 5 yrs $79.8m, signed in ‘08 at age 29 (17.8 PER in 8 games in ‘08)
• Tim Duncan — 2 yrs $40m, signed in ‘07 at age 31 (26.1 PER in ‘07)

As you can see, it is not that uncommon for players around the age of 30 to get lengthy contracts. Factors are of course the economy, the amount of cap space teams have, and how willing those teams are to outbid one another. Only three or four guys get paid the big bucks each year, and I see only one or two getting it this off-season.

As for Lamar, I look to see an increase in production from the regular season to the playoffs and he has been one of the few to actually increase his production in two of the past four playoff appearances he’s had with the Lakers. He  increased his regular season PER from 16.1 to 20.7 in the 2007 playoffs. This year, he had a 16.6 PER during the regular season and 18 PER in 23 playoff games.

Based off of Lamar’s production and age, I would have to say he probably falls somewhere between Peja and and Camby. Does that mean he gets a 4 year $45m contract? No. Times have changed and even NBA owners are feeling the heat of the economy. As such, Lamar won’t see that much green.

My best guess is that the Lakers can get him for somewhere in the range of $7-$8m per year and hopefully keep it to a shorter contract, maybe three to four years. I envision the two sides settling on a four year, $29m contract, with maybe a player option in the fourth year.

A team would have to be willing to offer him $10m+ to have a chance at prying him away, and at that price, teams will then have to decide whether Lamar is a clear cut number two option. While he showed more consistency this year, but that was off the bench and he had the luxury of Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol carrying the brunt of the work, and the responsibility. Clearly, he is the perfect number three man where you do not need to rely on his scoring every night, but a number two scoring option? I don’t think so.

I believe, when it is all said and done, there won’t be anyone out there willing to overpay for a guy who might become your third option…which is a victory for the Lakers. They will end up re-signing Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom to reasonable contracts and will be huge favorites to repeat going into next season.

Stay tuned for my next article as I discuss the importance of re-signing Shannon Brown, who finished strong and showed enough potential to really be an asset for this team in the years to come.

Lakers Will be Busy this Off-Season

It is never too early to look ahead to the 2009-2010 season when your Los Angeles Lakers will look to defend their crown.

This team obviously does not need an overhaul, rather we need to keep as many pieces together as possible, while making minor tweaks to improve a couple flaws.

The top five priorities for the Lakers this off-season are:

1. Sign Trevor Ariza
2. Sign Lamar Odom
3. Sign Shannon Brown
4. Find a veteran big who can bring an edge and provide toughness
5. Find some additional outside shooting

This will be a five part segment in which I break down each priority, starting now with the re-signing of Ariza.

Sign Trevor Ariza

Trevor Ariza came into his own this season. His numbers were all very impressive as he tried to fill in as the defensive stopper on one end and the fourth option behind Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom on the other.

• The regular season (19 starts) — 8.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.7 spg, on 46% from the field
• The playoffs (23 starts) — 11.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.7 3pg, on 50% from the field and 48% from the 3-pt line

In his first three seasons, prior to joining the Lakers, the 23 year old missed 41 games due to injury. He came over the the Lakers 11 games into the season for Brian cook and Maurice Evans. He again was injured and appeared in only 24 regular season games. He missed the first two rounds of the playoffs, but only saw 45 minutes in eight games. As such, we really only have this season to judge him by, and unfortunately, it was the year his contract expired.

I am all for re-signing Ariza — I do have him as the number one priority — but the Lakers must be weary. Everyone knows of the contract-year-syndrome in which NBA duds become NBA studs overnight. Eric Dampier got a seven year $73 million contract contract thanks to his strong performance in his last year with Golden State. Jerome James got paid $30 million for his strong playoff performance while with the Sonics.

The most near and dear to me was during my first year working for the Clippers during the ‘04-’05 season, when I was able to witness first hand Bobby Simmons’ explosive season. He averaged nearly 16 ppg, 6 rpg, and 3 apg, while shooting 47% from the field. At only 26 years of age, he had nice size (6′6, 230), could play either wing position, played solid defense, and mastered the mid-range game. He had a great focus and determination to improve with each practice and shoot around before each game. I was convinced his strong play had nothing to do with it being his contract year or that I was able to watch him in person. He was about to enter his prime and looked ready to contribute to a team.

I wanted the Clippers to re-sign him in the worst way. As luck would have it, he signed an offer sheet with the Milwaukee Bucks for five years and $47 million and the Clippers let him go free. Since then, he has been traded to the Nets, had a few injury problems, and saw his playing time (34, 22, & 24 mpg), scoring (13.4, 7.6, & 7.8 ppg), and shooting (45%, 42%, & 45%) fluctuate and decrease well below his career year numbers.

It just goes to show, you never really know.

So, what is the difference between Bobby and Trevor? Well, Trevor is more dynamic on defense, is only 23, seems to be a perfect complement to Kobe and likes to play off of him either spotting up, cutting or running the floor. He gives the Lakers great length at the position and tremendous athleticism. He is also an improved shooter. I also don’t believe Trevor will get anything near the Bobby Simmons type contract offers from other teams, therefore making him very affordable.

The only teams I think will go after Ariza are the Spurs, the Heat, and the Blazers. Each team could offer him their starting small forward spot, but San Antonio and Miami could only offer him the mid-level exception (starting at about $5.5m/yr) while Portland should have about $7-$8 million in cap space (assuming they think he is a definite upgrade over Travis Outlaw). The Grizzlies, Pistons, and Thunder will have plenty of cap space as well, but all those teams already have their small forward entrenched.

Therefore, my best guess is that we sign him to a four year contract in the range of $16-$20 million. Factor in his relatively cheap extension and his young age and you can see why I think he is a greater priority than Lamar, who might command more money in the open market and will be 30 at the start of next season.

In case anyone disagrees, ask yourself one question…would the Lakers have won without him?

Factor in the two game saving steals vs Denver that led to a 2-1 advantage and two huge quarters in the final two games of the Finals (Game 4, we were down 12 at the half when he got us back in the game by scoring 13 points in the third; Game 5, he scored 11 in the second, igniting a 16-0 run and we never looked back).

Need I say more…

Stay tuned for my break down of Lamar Odom and what might happen to him this off-season.

The Lakers – Your 2009 NBA Champions

It was this time last year; I can still remember the absolute disappointment. Lakers seemed to have everything in place:  The best coach, the best player, the final piece to the puzzle in the form of a seven foot Spaniard.

But, everything came crashing down June 17th, 2008. The night the Lakers lost to the Boston Celtics 131-92. The worst loss in a close out game in the Finals, ever.

Phil Jackson talked about the journey being what is truly important; and this was one hell of a journey that began when things ended last June.

It all seemed surreal; that game last night. It didn’t even seem possible. Not with two games left in LA and a Laker team lacking that killer instinct.

But, it happened Laker fans. It really happened. Now take it all in. Soak it all up.

Even with the Lakers being the favorites at the start of the season, I still can’t believe it. It’s one thing to have a goal, to talk about making it back, getting a second chance. But, to actually make it back to the Finals, and win. It seems like something put together down the street in Hollywood, not in STAPLES Center.

I can still remember that trade for Pau Gasol last year. It took maybe a week before I already had visions of a dynasty in the making.

We soared into the playoffs. We fought hard and played tough, even defeated the mighty San Antonio Spurs in five games. That brought on a clash of the titans match up between two storied franchises –the Los Angeles Lakers vs the Boston Celtics. It was the perfect backdrop for the NBA Finals. Unfortunately, it did not end well.

However, I think the painful loss — for the players, coaches, and fans — is what made this season so special. It’s also what gave us that drive, that passion, the will to win at all costs.

Not many teams are able to come back after defeat in the Finals and win; in fact, the Lakers are the first team to do so since the ‘89 Detroit Pistons.

I have enjoyed this season more than any other, and this title is as sweet as ever. We were supposed to blow through the Western Conference in the playoffs; instead, we found ourselves battling three tough, rugged teams:  The Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets.

However, I think each series brought about a new challenge and with it an opportunity to prove ourselves. I know I, like many others, doubted whether this team had the fortitude, the stones, to close a team out. Time and time again, we were all frustrated by the large leads the Lakers gave up during the regular season, and then continued in to the playoffs. But, with each challenge, a lesson was learned. We grew stronger, we grew closer, and more importantly, we began to believe. We took on Kobe Bryant’s demeanor. No matter the situation, we knew how to come back. We knew how to overcome.

We were pushed to the limit. Then again, if it wasn’t for the struggles we had — the games we narrowly escaped with a victory — who knows where we would be. If it wasn’t for the Yao-less Rockets pushing us to a Game 7, if it wasn’t for the Nuggets playing well enough to easily be up 3-0, and it if wasn’t for the Orlando Magic playing superb basketball in Games 2-4 of the Finals, we may not be where we are today — World Champions.

Phil Jackson’s words ring true. “There is something about sticktuitiveness, team camaraderie, guys that are willing to stay with it, be disciplined, and be coachable and here we are.” Where is that you ask? Try Kobe’s fourth, Phil’s 10th, and the Lakers 15th.

I want to say thank you to the Orlando Magic for playing as well as they did. That was not your typical five game series. We did not dominate them; we simply outlasted them. Two overtimes, two missed lay ups, two missed free throws. It was a series of missed opportunities for the Magic, but I give the Lakers all the credit in the world for taking advantage of every Magic mistake.

It was simple:  I believe, if it wasn’t for Dwight Howard and companies’ solid play in Games 2, 3, and 4, I do not think we would have won Game 5. We overcame an early deficit, thanks to our focus, and let’s face it, our hunger. We had learned to fear and respect the Orlando Magic. The last thing we wanted was to let the Magic get hot and shoot themselves into a Game 7, where anything can happen. As a result, we seized the day. Our guys really proved themselves and showed they are champions.

Who would have thought we would win a championship with our defense? Let me tell you, we did just that:

• Rafer Alston hit 38% of his threes vs the Cavs on his way to 12.5 ppg; we held him to 3-19 from downtown (16%) and 10.6 ppg.
• Hedo Turkoglu averaged 6.7 apg vs the Cavs and other than the Game 3 loss when he had seven assists, we held him to four assists or less in each game.
• Outside of Game 2, we held Rashard Lewis in check. In Games 1, 4, & 5 we held him to 2-10, 2-10, & 6-19 from the field, 40% shooting overall. The biggest factor was holding him to only 13 free throw attempts after shooting over 30 in each of the first three series.
• Best of all, we surrounded Dwight with double teams and intense pressure throughout the series that confounded the big man and forced him into four turnovers per game (only 2.6 tpg coming in). We held him to only 8.6 shots per game and 49% from the field (he shot 68%, 55%, and 65% in the first three rounds respectively). He also had as many turnovers as blocks (20).
• Pau did most of the defending on Dwight and did a wonderful job keeping him away from the basket and utilized his long arms to disrupt him all series long. Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom were active and used their length to their advantage as well, creating deflections and getting steals.
• Lakers defense got better as the playoffs went on. Their on the ball pressure, contesting of shots, and finishing off possessions with rebounds won them a championship.
• 91.2 ppg — that is what we held the juggernaut that was the Orlando Magic offense to in the Finals (they averaged 101 ppg during the regular season).

I think I enjoyed this season more than any other. I know I can appreciate this ring more than any other.

Maybe it is because you tend to appreciate things more as you get older (I did just turn 27 earlier in the month). Or maybe it is because it has been seven years since the last championship. Since then, we got embarrassed in the Finals by an underdog, traded away a franchise player, missed the playoffs entirely, got knocked out of the first round twice by the same team, and lost in the Finals again, this time to our bitter rival, all while having to endure two and some change seasons of Kwame Brown.

It all seems worth it now, now that we sit at the top. The fact that we got to do what many never get an opportunity to do — get a second chance, a chance for redemption.

Enjoy it Laker fans. Get your t-shirts and hats. Go have a drink with your friends. Skip work to pile in with the thousands of other Laker fans outside of STAPLES Center for the parade.

Take it all in. Soak it all up.

We earned every bit of this one.

Derek Fisher Does it Again!

I found myself scrambling from one title for my article to another throughout the entire game. At first, it seemed destined to be “The Refs BLEW it Again” (mind you, I was a little bitter in the first half). After the third quarter, I was ready for “Trevor Ariza’s Explosion in the Third Makes All the Difference.” Once I saw Kobe Bryant hit the first two shots of overtime I was ready to put his stamp on it with “The Black Mamba Comes Through When it Matters Most.”

I was about to flip it with “When 20 Rebounds and 9 Blocks Just Isn’t Enough,” or simply “Thank You Dwight.”

But, let’s be real, our boy Derek Fisher is the hero of the day.

I’ve been on the guy’s side all along. I swear. You can even ask my Uncle; I never lost faith in Fish.

Right before Game 1, my Uncle wrote me, “If Fish continues his playoff ways, lets hope for foul trouble, or Phil (Jackson) actually getting tired of waiting, and playing Shannon (Brown) more minutes.”

I responded with, “I know Fisher is struggling, but, he still has been to the Finals more than anyone not named Kobe and would you really trust major minutes to a guy who has 919 career minutes (Brown) or to a guy who has 24,684 minutes (Fisher)? I know Fisher has slowed…but for now, he will still start and should get most of the minutes. At least he knows the offense as well as anyone, puts himself in the right spots, and is a threat and does space the floor, even if he is shooting only 36% from the field and 24% from the 3-pt line (he still is a career 41% from behind the arc in the playoffs & I think he can hit a big shot at the end of a game, even if he’s 1-9).”

My Uncle watched the first game and wrote back, “…you were spot on with the comments on…Fishers experience. Just goes to show you that being a devoted Laker fan for over 30 years does not give me more insights than someone who knows how to read stats, how to scout teams and players, and can look at trends to provide logical evaluations.”

Sounds like my words could not have been more true. So the 64 year old wasn’t 1-9 from the field, but he was 0-5 from the three point line before he hit the two biggest shots of his career — and that’s saying something!

The last three games have been insanely entertaining and each one could have easily gone either way, but none more than Game 4.

There were so many layers to that game.

• Questionable calls that led to our bigs getting in major foul trouble.
• The Lakers poor shooting to start the game (33% in the first half).
• Our huge third quarter on both ends of the floor (outscoring them 30-14).
• The Magic had foul trouble of their own with Hedo Turkoglu picking up his fourth in the third quarter.
• Rashard Lewis had a poor shooting night (another 2-10 from the field).
• Dwight Howard had incredible energy to start the game that got EVERYONE in foul trouble and led to to 20 rebounds and a record nine blocks. However, he also had seven turnovers and eight missed free throws (the Magic missed 15 overall and a number of them in the fourth quarter).
• Oh, and how bad were the calls? The Magic shot their 15th free throw in the fourth quarter before picking up their first team foul, which did not come until the 1:14 mark in the fourth.
• Random stat, the Lakers are now 10-3 in the playoffs when Ariza gets at least one steal and hits one three in the same game (he had two steals and three threes in Game 4).

The first half was dominated by the Lakers bigs picking up one foul after another. The horrible calls completely threw off our rhythm on offense, and forced Phil Jackson to use all 12 guys in the first half. With so many whistles on both ends of the floor, there really was no flow to the game at all.

Luckily, my father and I were able to get a phone call in at halftime and did the usual:  Complain about the refs, the Lakers energy, the fact that as bad as we were playing, the least we could do is be more aggressive than the Magic. I reassured him that shooting is all about ups and downs. If Orlando shot 75% in the first half of Game 3, and only 38% in the second half, then logic would dictate that our 33% in the first half would jump to 70% in the second half…or something like that. With more shots going in and a little bit more hustle, we might even be able to put ourselves in position to steal the game.

In steps Trevor Ariza with an amazing third quarter performance. Credit our defense as well as the Magic only managed 14 points in the quarter. If it wasn’t for Ariza igniting the comeback, there would be no heroics by Fisher in the end.

The fourth quarter was as difficult as any to watch. First, Hedo went on a 5-0 run, and had me worried. Then, Dwight went to the line for two, and I figured he was good for one. That did not stop me from repeating in my head, ‘just miss two, just miss two, and make this game interesting.’ He did, and that’s all we needed.

When Fisher rose up and knocked down that three, I was unsure whether I was more excited to tie it up, or that it was Fish who came through. However, was anyone really surprised it went in? And when he sealed the deal with 30 seconds left in overtime, I was even less surprised.

Fisher gave us another moment to remember. One that will be forever remembered in the annals of Laker lore. What an amazing feeling, an amazing game, and an amazing player.

Long live Derek Fisher.