The Spurs Are Again the Lakers Top Competition

“I play because the 37th draft pick usually doesn’t.” — Nick Van Exel, ex-Laker point guard

The San Antonio Spurs, with their off-season transactions, have once again established themselves, at least on paper, as the favorites to take the top spot in the National Basketball Association’s Western Conference…behind the Los Angeles Lakers, of course!

What this means is that the Lakers are in no way a lock to make it back to the Finals next year. Despite the additions to the top teams in the West — Ron Artest to the Lakers, Shawn Marion to the Mavericks, Andre Miller to the Blazers — it was the moves the Spurs made that really caught my attention. Last year’s first round exit was as surprising as anything that happened in the NBA last season, which was why I was not surprised to see the usually fiscally responsible Spurs take a whatever-it-takes approach into the 2009 off-season and fill in their gaps. What was surprising, was the success they had in bringing in some exceptional talent.

The Additions

The Spurs needed to get more athletic…in comes the versatile Richard Jefferson, who came over from the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, and Fabricio Oberto — or in NBA terms, for nothing. The team will of course welcome his career averages of 17.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.0 apg and hope his improved shooting continues — he shot a career high 39.7% from three last season, something that could easily improve with low post threat Tim Duncan providing open jumpers. He will also give Tony ‘one-man-fast-break’ Parker a running mate in transition.

The Spurs needed another big man to help out versus the Lakers size…in comes Antonio McDyess. They were able to steal him away from the Detroit Pistons. McDyess will most likely start next to Duncan and instantly becomes his best big man side kick since the great David Robinson, despite the fact he’ll be 35 at the start of the season. While McDyess isn’t nearly the high-fly act he once was before all the knee problems, he will certainly provide the Spurs with some bulk to root the Lakers big guys out of the post and keep them off the boards. His 9/8 two years ago and 10/10 last year with the Pistons was very impressive considering he was only getting 30 mpg. The Spurs would be thrilled to see 10 rpg while providing an efficient 18 foot jump shot and solid defense.

The Spurs needed to get younger…in comes DaJuan Blair; the stud college bruiser, who dropped from guaranteed lottery to surprising second rounder, was snatched up by the ever aware Spurs who didn’t hesitate taking him with the 37th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. I’m not saying he will one day replace Duncan, but he will certainly be an effective player and give them someone to bang bodies with the Lakers big men. I just read that he is considering sporting the #37 to match his draft pick and all I can think of is Nick ‘the Quick’ Van Exel-lent, who too was once drafted #37 overall way back in the 1993 NBA Draft. I can still see my giant poster of Nick stapled to the ceiling over my bed in the house I grew up in and I remember going to sleep every night reading the quote “I play because the 37th draft pick usually doesn’t” over and over again. I knew that Van Exel played such inspired ball because he wanted to make every team that passed him up pay. Watch out Laker fans, because I can see Blair taking the same approach and will be the driving force behind him becoming a beast on the boards, and a major pain for the Lakers.

The Matchups

Point Guards — The speed of Parker and reserve George Hill will still cause all kinds of problems for Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown. However, I am interested to see how well Brown can utilize his size and strength to try and bully Parker.

Wings — A healthy Manu will go a long way in how successful the Spurs will be vs the Lakers. On defense, he is always active trying to disrupt things. On offense, the things he can do with the ball in his hands causes all kinds of problems defensively for the Lakers. Jefferson might not be able to get into Kobe like Bowen used to, but talk about an upgrade on the offensive end. Kobe will have to stay honest on defense, regardless of whether he’s defending Manu or RJ, and won’t be able to roam freely. They still can bring in sharp shooters Roger Mason Jr. and Michael Finley off the bench. The good news for the Lakers, with Artest and Kobe, we have two elite perimeter defenders to better match up against the new look Spurs.

Bigs — It starts with Duncan, but having McDyess to help defend Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol is a big help. The rookie Blair seems like a tough match up because of his strength as he should be able to bully the Lakers for rebounds. They also added the shot blocking of Theo Ratliff and still have Matt Bonner to space the floor. Lamar Odom becomes even more essential as his length and versatility are key. He can defend Timmy in the low post, run out to a shooter like Bonner, or to help box out and out reach a guy like Blair.

It all adds up to one thing:  The Spurs are back. The scary thing is, the four-time champs actually seem better than ever. Don’t worry Laker faithful, our addition of Artest will help us out immensely. Either way, it should be fun to watch this mighty Spurs team go up against our champion Lakers — and if we’re lucky, we’ll see a Western Conference Finals next year for the ages. May the best team win!

What Laker Should Get More PT?

Per 36 Minutes

*The idea is you take a players’ stats and average it out over 36 minutes to get an idea of what their production might be if you gave them starters minutes.

I think the rotation will go as follows:  Andrew Bynum should start again this year while Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar will go back and forth over who gets the bulk of the backup point guard minutes. I also see Brown severely limiting Sasha Vujacic’s playing time and Luke Walton should get the reserve small forward duties. That leaves Josh Powell and D.J. Mbenga as more of an insurance policy in case one of our bigs go down. Meanwhile, Adam Morrison, the former #3 overall pick a few years ago, is the wild card. We still need to surround Kobe Bryant with shooters, so let’s see if Sasha and Adam pick up the slack. The Lake Show is looking at a strong nine man rotation for the 2009-2010 season.

This could be the return of the bench mob!

Andrew Bynum

17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.2 bpg

If Drew was able to stay out of foul trouble, you can see how effective he can be. Even though he is maybe the third or fourth option on offense, he still puts up what amounts to 18 points per night. His 10 boards and two blocks are really what you want to see him focus on next year. The offense will come through put backs and ally oops, but it’s nice to know he does have a number of good post moves in his arsenal. He will still be part of the big three (big men) and I’m sure they will all take turns on offense. I see him getting back to his pre-injury self next year and let’s pray he has a full, healthy season.

Unless he really advances, Lamar Odom still needs time, so I don’t see more than 30-32 minutes.

Jordan Farmar

12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.7 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.5 3pg

This will be the most interesting battle in training camp. The more I look at it, the less I think that either Brown or Farmar will take Fisher’s spot in the starting lineup, even though I predicted Farmar would even before last season. But, who will be his main backup? I think Jordan is certainly the more traditional point guard, who wants to penetrate and create opportunities for others, but he just needs to build up more consistency.

This could be the year he takes over backup duties and plays 20-25 minutes a night.

Shannon Brown

15.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.6 3pg (in 18 gms w/Lakers)

To me, he stands as the one guy who should without question get more playing time next year, depending on his improvement in the off-season. The triangle offense takes years to learn, but he still managed playing time to end the season last year without much knowledge of the offense, so you can see what might happen if he actually picks it up in training camp. I think the three-headed monster that is our point guard situation might not be ideal to the three players involved (including Derek Fisher and Farmar), but if they accept it, they can focus on going all out while they are in and really cause problems for opponents. Who knows, maybe each guy will pick up full court all game long.

At the very least he will split time backing up the point and Kobe Bryant, possibly playing 12-15 minutes per game.

Luke Walton

10.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1 spg

You either love him or you hate him. The classic “system” player. Well guess what, the $4.8m man is in the perfect system. The triangle calls for bright players who can pass, shoot, and play multiple positions. Say what you will about Luke (like whether he deserved a 6 year, $30m contract two season ago), but the guy can play, and fits in well when surrounded by talent. Anyone that doubts his production — and I think he has more value outside of his stats — realize his 10/5/5 in 36 minutes puts him up there with any other seventh or eighth man in any one’s rotation…and he might be our 10th guy.

20 minutes per game is more than enough.

Sasha Vujacic

12.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.1 spg, 2.3 3pg

Me being a shooter, I can attest to how tough it is to get any kind of rhythm when you are playing limited minutes a night and Sasha only got 16 mpg last year. It is difficult to tell where The Machine goes from here. Do we chalk last season up to an off year (39% from the field, 36% from three), or did he play exceptionally well at the right time (45% from the field, 44% from three the year before, his contract year; he also hit 31 threes in 21 playoff games that year)? I think Brown might get more minutes backing up Kobe, just to make room for him, which will only put more pressure on the foreign gunner to produce in limited minutes.

8-12 minutes until he proves he just had an off year.

Josh Powell

12.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 bpg

It’s funny how everyone passes over a guy like Powell, but goes crazy over a guy like Brandon Bass. Powell’s numbers are very comparable to Bass’ per 36 minutes (15.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg) only Powell will cost the Lakers a little under a million dollars next season, while some team will be willing to dump the full mid-level on Bass in the range of $5.8m. Powell can rebound, play serviceable defense and has a killer pick and pop game out to 20 feet.

15 minutes is his limit.

Didier Mbenga

12.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2 spg, 4.8 bpg

You can see right away that Mbenga stands out for his defense. He is not in for very long stretches, so maybe that is why he goes all out and gets steals and blocks. If he got more time, it is safe to say he would not be able to sustain the pace he plays at, plus, he gets a lot of fouls, so I doubt he would ever be able to average five blocks per game. However, in short spans, he is a great back up.

He can give you a solid 5-10 minutes per game.

Adam Morrison

8.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.5 apg (in only 8 gms w/Lakers)

You know there is not enough minutes to go around and Mr. Gonzaga might be the odd man out. Unless his outside shooting really improves, he picks up the triangle real quick, and he dispels the slow white guy can’t guard anyone myth, then I don’t see him getting much time.

5-8 minutes could be earned; if not just to see what he’s got.

Thug Life

So, in light of the past 48 hours, I have decided to scrap parts four and five of my series, Busy Off-Season.

I was all ready to put together an article showing how the Lakers needed a gritty veteran big man. Despite winning a championship last year, we were missing that tough minded individual. A thug if you will; or at least an enforcer. Never did it occur to me that this would come in the form of Ron Artest.

While there are certain inherent risks when signing a guy like Artest — will he charge after a guy in STAPLES for giving him a funny look — you certainly can’t deny the man’s talent. Only a few seasons ago, he was playing in Indiana and moved his way into the MVP race with his all-out play on both ends of the court. Everyone talks about how versatile Lamar Odom is, but have you seen this guy?!?

At only 29 years of age, and still in his prime — having never really had a contract to match his skills — he chose to sign with the champs for the mid-level exception, which is enough proof for me to think that he wants to go to a winning situation and make it work. I realize this is not a good year to expect a huge contract and that is more what forced Ron into this situation, but now that he is here, I want to believe that his only concern will be to win a ring. He is older and wiser and has come a long way since his Detroit ROCK City days.

The two proposed mid-level deals that I mentioned before are:  Three years, $18.5m, or five years, $33.5m. This will not affect the Lakers ability to re-sign Lamar Odom, however, since he is our free agent and we own his Bird-Rights; meaning we can sign him for whatever it takes, regardless of whether we are over the cap. (Everything you would ever want to know about the NBA’s salary cap can be found here, including Bird rights and soft cap).

With the news that Ron Artest will for all intensive purposes be a Laker come July 8th, the Lake Show will get the best perimeter defender who is built like a tank. At 6′7, 260 lbs Artest is a force to be reckoned with and he’s got a mean streak to go with it (and we’ll take it). The one thing you know he will bring every night is an intensity and a great desire to win.

For all his ‘problems,’ playing on the court has never been the issue. He averaged 17.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 3.3 apg, as well as 1.5 spg and a career high 2.2 3pg, shooting 40% from behind the arc in his lone season in Houston last year. He is a unique talent, a rare specimen of brute force and skill. Not only does he outweigh Al Horford by 15 pounds, he can defend everyone from Tony Parker to Kobe Bryant to dare I say he could put up one heck of a fight bodying up Shaquille O’Neal.

As far as the rift on the court you saw last season between Ron and Kobe, I think it was more due to competitive juices (and Ron wanting to get under his skin). I don’t see them being a problem together. Even with all the trash talking and elbows flying, there is a mutual respect you could see between the two. Besides, I think Kobe and Phil Jackson will be able to control Ron’s antics off the court and on the court he’ll be just fine. You figure Dennis Rodman was much more difficult and distracting than Artest, so I think it will be child’s play for Phil next year.

My Uncle was actually the one to break the news to me the other day when he heard it on LA’s sport talk and he immediately questioned me about Ron Ron’s shot selection. It’s true, he has never had the best selection, and never really shot a great percentage from the field (42% for his career; only shot above 45% in a season once). However, what I saw last year, especially in the playoffs, and especially after Yao Ming got hurt, he became the number one option. At that point, he proved he is not the type of player that can carry a team and I think he felt he had to do too much, thus the poor shots. Luckily for the Lakers and Artest, he won’t be expected to be the number one, or even number two option thanks to Kobe and Pau Gasol.

I still want to recognize the fact that things can go one of two ways:  Either he focuses less on scoring and more on defense, accepting his role, or he can’t handle all the attention that Kobe and Pau and even Lamar Odom will get and ends up shooting way too many shots because he is not getting enough. While he only played in a few games last year with Yao and Tracy McGrady — the clear cut one and two guy — at least he showed he could step back and fit in.

I was the first to say the most important thing the Lakers need to do this off-season is sign Trevor Ariza, and while I hate to see him go, I am glad the Lakers resisted over paying for him. I thought based on where Ariza is at in his young career, as well as the poor economy and few teams with the money to spend or want to spend, that he would end up with a four year, $20m contract. The Lakers were willing to give him a five year, $33.5m contract and he felt like that was a slap in the face. For everything Ariza does, it is the things he doesn’t do (no handle, can’t create his own shot, not a lock down defender) that make me think he wasn’t worth any more. Then you factor in the fact that he needs a player like Kobe to get him good looks to be effective, and he is only worth the mid-level.

Besides, Artest is 10 times the player than Ariza is now and showed that, while he has worlds of talent, he can also just be one of the guys. In 27 games in which Artest played third fiddle to Yao and McGrady, he averaged 14.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 2.8 apg. He also shot 38.6% from the field in those games versus 40.1% on the season. He may have scored three fewer points per game, but took fewer shots, as you would expect. The team still was 17-10 (.629) and could have been much better if guys stayed healthy and got more time to gel together on the court. I have no worries whether Artest can make it work on the court.

My concerns, if any, are over his health. His teammate from last year, McGrady, is the one known to be brittle, but Ron has actually never played an 82 game season in his 10 years in the league. He has only played 70+ in four seasons (although two others he played in 69 games). He has missed an average of 21.6 games per year. Okay, so 72 of those games were due to his year long suspension, so really he has missed an average of 14 games a year due to injury. I think that’s just more a result of his physical play, and being in his prime, I’m not too concerned (plus the Lakers can always fill in his spot with Luke Walton for a short period of time).

The amazing thing is that Artest will fit into the triangle perfectly. He can bring the ball up, distribute, create for others or himself, post up, step out and hit the three (did I mention he hit more than two a game last year and shot it 40%). Best of all, Kobe will never have to defend the other team’s best player. And if we do face a team like the Spurs in the playoffs, we can put Artest on Richard Jefferson and Kobe on Manu Ginobili (or visa versa) and shut those two down.

There could not have been a more important signing and I am going to go out on a limb here:  The team the Lakers will put on the floor next year will without question be the most talented team ever assembled…at least on paper. Factor in Kobe (30), Artest (29), Gasol (28), and Lamar (29) are all in their prime. If Andrew Bynum stays healthy and continues to improve, that will just be icing on the cake!

As long as the Lakers re-sign Odom to something reasonable ($8m a year), this team will most certainly have a three to four year window to win that many rings, even with the rest of the league improving.

I want to leave you with a good point made by ESPNs Ric Bucher. While everyone will agree that the Lakers may not have won without Ariza — and the fact that he is young and only going to get better — this swap for Artest is certainly a better move for the team in the short term. The Lakers don’t have to wait for Ariza to get better, they can now rely on a ‘chiseled-vet’ and a known commodity.