Shannon Brown, an Important Part of the Future

Part III of the five part series, Busy Off-Season. Lakers need to find a replacement for Derek Fisher…could Shannon Brown be the answer?

What a busy week the NBA just had.

Sure the draft was pretty uneventful, but how exciting is it when three of the top teams in the league all make major moves and upgrades beginning with the Cavaliers stealing Shaquille O’Neal away from the we-need-to-drop-salary-and-quick Suns. Give credit to the Spurs too for breaking out of their safe shell and actually being ultra aggressive. They made a big move turning a few nobodies into one Richard Jefferson, who I think embodies the Spurs system — both in his calm demeanor and his ability to play defense. They will welcome his fresh legs and versatility. Then you have the Magic, who just lost to the Lakers in the Championship game and seemingly lost their glue guy, Hedo Turkoglu, who balked at their qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent. However, they bounced back in a hurry by trading away useless Rafer Alston and promising youngster Courtney Lee and getting back Vince “I’m-32-and-still-have-a-ton-to-prove” Carter.

With the rest of our immediate competition upping the ante, could you imagine a situation in which the Lakers do not resign Trevor Ariza or Lamar Odom?

Better yet, what about this young kid Shannon Brown?

Now, was he the reason the Lakers won the 2009 NBA Championship? No. Was he a vital cog in the engine that is the new Lakers dynasty? No. So, you may be wondering why I am devoting an entire article to a guy who barely played in 39 games for us?

The answer is, I saw all I need to know that he will one day play a very important role in the Lakers future.

A big question that keeps coming up this off-season was who is the Lakers point guard of the future? Ironically, Brown and Jordan Farmar both came into the league in 2006 and were selected 25th and 26th, respectively. Jordan was drafted to eventually take over the reigns, but in his first year he barely managed 15 minutes per game behind Smush Parker. The following year was a better situation. Fisher was back in town, which gave Farmar a one or two year window to learn, grow and mature behind a consummate pro. It also helped that the Lakers drafted yet another point guard, Javaris Crittenton with the 19th pick, which really motivated Jordan to push himself, as he eventually doubled his scoring output from his rookie year.

Blessed with an explosive first step and a 42-inch vertical that allows him to finish at the rim, he seemed well on his way. However, he has yet to sustain the few flashes of brilliance here and there, and his third year progress took a hit after a December injury sidelined him for a month. Even when he came back, his shot was as shaky as his defense and his confidence seemed at an all-time low — he has yet to get it back, shooting just 31% from three in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Brown struggled to find minutes after being drafted by the Cavaliers. An injury in his first year stunted his growth and he made a number of appearances in the D-League. From there, he got traded to the Bulls and eventually signed a one year deal with the Bobcats. After a solid game vs the Lakers, he was traded again, but this time to the City of Angels. He rode the pine for most of February, March, and April, but in the final five games of the season, Phil Jackson must have saw something in practice that made him decide to let the newcomer be the first guy off the bench. Brown rewarded Phil with a number of highlight reels as well as a solid stat line: 7 pts, 2 reb, and 2 ast in only 16 minutes of play.

Then came the playoffs. Could he have been playing for a new contract? Or, was he just happy to find himself contributing positively to a championship caliber team in the playoffs? (My guess is the latter).

Either way, I feel this is almost as important a sign for general manager Mitch Kupchak, as the signings of Ariza and Odom. I see the selling of two of their three draft picks as a clear sign they want to keep Brown. By not adding a young player, Brown (only 23 years old), becomes that much more important. Every team needs young players to sustain success. Besides, he simply showed me too much during the final two months of the season to let him slip away.

We also know PJ loves big point guards and at 6′4, 211 pounds, Brown is just that. He is also extremely athletic, can defend, and oh, did I mention he hit 48% of his threes in the playoffs? I can envision a future lineup of Brown and Ariza giving us unparalleled athleticism, the likes the league has not seen.

Granted, there might be another team who feels he could be had for cheap and offer a bit more, but I don’t see there being too much competition for him. I believe, regardless of the incredibly small sample size we have to go by, that he is at least worth the risk. I could see a three year contract worth $5.5 million. It won’t break the bank or stop us from re-signing any of the other major players, but it will guarantee he has at least a fair shot at becoming Derek Fisher’s replacement.

Maybe he won’t become an all-star, but I expect big things from the kid.

Not bad for a guy who was just a ‘throw-in’ on the Vladimir Radmanovic and Adam Morrison deal that was really only made to save Jerry Buss a few measly millions.

Fear Not, Lamar Odom Will Remain a Laker

Part II of the five part series, Busy Off-Season. I will now delve into the obstacles teams will have in trying to sign Lamar Odom away from the Lakers.

Lamar Odom might be the most unique player in the league. Certainly one of the most versatile players — known as the Human Swiss Army Knife.  Standing 6′10, long arms, great handle, strong, smooth, and athletic. Able to rebound, lead the fast break and either finish or dish with the best of them. He can also step out and knock down a three. He can defend everyone on the floor, from Dwight Howard to switching out on little Aaron Brooks.

He also has his flaws. With so much talent, it is well documented that he rarely uses everything at his disposal and is wildly inconsistent. He has always been an enigma. The guy could average 25/10/5 every night and still defend the opponents best low post player. He showed his versatility in the Finals by keeping up with Rashard Lewis. Instead, he is closer to a 13/10/3 guy, which is still good, but no where near his potential.

At nearly 30 years of age, he is in the prime of his career. He proved that he is a guy that thrives when the pressure is off his shoulders. He is at the point where he can accept a lessor role — even sixth man — and be a major part of a championship team. However, I think it is clearly time to throw out the term ‘potential’ and realize he is what he is.

Is it a coincidence that it all came together during his last year of his contract? Perhaps. He still averaged 18/11 versus the Jazz who clearly had no answer for him and came through with another solid performance versus the Magic in the Finals, posting 13/8 to go along with one steal and one block per game. He also held Rashard in check for all but one game. He really made a difference in Game 2 (19 pts on eight of nine from the field, 3 blk and 1 stl) and in the series clincher (17 pts, 10 reb, including three huge threes where he finished the playoffs 18-35 overall from the three point line, 51%).

So, the question becomes, what will he command in the off-season, or is he sincere when he says he is willing to accept less to stay with his favorite team?

I think it is much more simpler than that; I just don’t think there is anyone out there who can off him a contract he can’t refuse.

The only teams with significant cap space this summer are Detroit (approximately $24m), Memphis ($24m), and Oklahoma City ($16m). Atlanta has $17m, but will most likely use it on restricted free agent Marvin Williams, and they still have to figure out what to do with Mike Bibby. Toronto would have $14m, but it sounds like they want to keep Shawn Marion. Then there are about four teams who will all have around $7-$8m in cap space (Portland, Indiana, Minnesota, and New Jersey), but I think teams will need at least need to offer $10m/yr to have a chance at Lamar. Besides, most teams are looking to shed money, not take on big contracts.

Detroit is probably the biggest threat and Lamar could replace the inside/outside presence that Rasheed Wallace gave them. But to me, if they are willing to throw $10m or more at him, they may as well go after All Star Carlos Boozer.

You also have to factor in that there are other big time free agents (other than Boozer) who will eat up most of the open cap space teams have. The list includes Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest, Marion, Rasheed, Jason Kidd, Ben Gordon, Andre Miller, and Mike Bibby.

Then you have to consider every team is obviously saving up for the 2010 free agent market, which will include LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire.

A sign and trade for Lamar would have it’s problems. Do the Lakers really want to give him to a team, so that he can become a match up nightmare for us? And, if we are willing to sign him and take back another contract, is there anyone out there that would give us more value than Lamar? Maybe a Shane Battier (excellent defender and spot up shooter) or Mike Miller (shooter and creator) would have their fit, but who knows. This team, with Lamar, won it all.

If the Lakers are going to sign him, what would be a reasonable contract? In order to answer that question, I compiled a list of players who got contracts at a similar age (28-32) in the past seven years to see where Lamar might fall.

• Tim Thomas — 4 yrs $24m, signed in ‘06 at age 29 (16.7 PER in 20 playoff games in ‘06)
• Antonio Daniels — 5 yrs $30m, signed in ‘05 at age 30 (18 PER in ‘05)
• James Posey – 4 yrs $25m, signed in ‘08 at age 31 (14.2 PER in 26 playoff games in ‘08)
• Mark Blount — 6 yrs $38.5m, signed in ‘04 at age 28 (16 PER in ‘04)
• Marcus Camby — 6 yrs $57m, signed in ‘04 at age 30 (17.8 PER in ‘04)
• Corey Maggette — 5 yrs $50m, signed in ‘08 at age 28 (19.3 PER ‘08)
• Steve Nash — 6 yrs $66m, signed in ‘04 at age 30 (20.5 PER in ‘04)
• Antawn Jamison — 4 yrs $50m, signed in ‘08 at age 32 (20.3 PER in ‘08)
• Peja Stojakovic — 5 yrs $64m, signed in ‘06 at age 29 (16.7 PER in ‘06)
• Baron Davis — 5 yrs $65m, signed in ‘08 at age 29 (19.8 PER in ‘08)
• Ben Wallace — 4 yrs $60m, signed in ‘06 at age 31 (17.5 PER in ‘06)
• Vince Carter — 5 yrs $78m, signed in ‘07 at age 30 (21.8 PER in ‘07)
• Elton Brand — 5 yrs $79.8m, signed in ‘08 at age 29 (17.8 PER in 8 games in ‘08)
• Tim Duncan — 2 yrs $40m, signed in ‘07 at age 31 (26.1 PER in ‘07)

As you can see, it is not that uncommon for players around the age of 30 to get lengthy contracts. Factors are of course the economy, the amount of cap space teams have, and how willing those teams are to outbid one another. Only three or four guys get paid the big bucks each year, and I see only one or two getting it this off-season.

As for Lamar, I look to see an increase in production from the regular season to the playoffs and he has been one of the few to actually increase his production in two of the past four playoff appearances he’s had with the Lakers. He  increased his regular season PER from 16.1 to 20.7 in the 2007 playoffs. This year, he had a 16.6 PER during the regular season and 18 PER in 23 playoff games.

Based off of Lamar’s production and age, I would have to say he probably falls somewhere between Peja and and Camby. Does that mean he gets a 4 year $45m contract? No. Times have changed and even NBA owners are feeling the heat of the economy. As such, Lamar won’t see that much green.

My best guess is that the Lakers can get him for somewhere in the range of $7-$8m per year and hopefully keep it to a shorter contract, maybe three to four years. I envision the two sides settling on a four year, $29m contract, with maybe a player option in the fourth year.

A team would have to be willing to offer him $10m+ to have a chance at prying him away, and at that price, teams will then have to decide whether Lamar is a clear cut number two option. While he showed more consistency this year, but that was off the bench and he had the luxury of Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol carrying the brunt of the work, and the responsibility. Clearly, he is the perfect number three man where you do not need to rely on his scoring every night, but a number two scoring option? I don’t think so.

I believe, when it is all said and done, there won’t be anyone out there willing to overpay for a guy who might become your third option…which is a victory for the Lakers. They will end up re-signing Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom to reasonable contracts and will be huge favorites to repeat going into next season.

Stay tuned for my next article as I discuss the importance of re-signing Shannon Brown, who finished strong and showed enough potential to really be an asset for this team in the years to come.

Lakers Will be Busy this Off-Season

It is never too early to look ahead to the 2009-2010 season when your Los Angeles Lakers will look to defend their crown.

This team obviously does not need an overhaul, rather we need to keep as many pieces together as possible, while making minor tweaks to improve a couple flaws.

The top five priorities for the Lakers this off-season are:

1. Sign Trevor Ariza
2. Sign Lamar Odom
3. Sign Shannon Brown
4. Find a veteran big who can bring an edge and provide toughness
5. Find some additional outside shooting

This will be a five part segment in which I break down each priority, starting now with the re-signing of Ariza.

Sign Trevor Ariza

Trevor Ariza came into his own this season. His numbers were all very impressive as he tried to fill in as the defensive stopper on one end and the fourth option behind Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom on the other.

• The regular season (19 starts) — 8.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.7 spg, on 46% from the field
• The playoffs (23 starts) — 11.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.7 3pg, on 50% from the field and 48% from the 3-pt line

In his first three seasons, prior to joining the Lakers, the 23 year old missed 41 games due to injury. He came over the the Lakers 11 games into the season for Brian cook and Maurice Evans. He again was injured and appeared in only 24 regular season games. He missed the first two rounds of the playoffs, but only saw 45 minutes in eight games. As such, we really only have this season to judge him by, and unfortunately, it was the year his contract expired.

I am all for re-signing Ariza — I do have him as the number one priority — but the Lakers must be weary. Everyone knows of the contract-year-syndrome in which NBA duds become NBA studs overnight. Eric Dampier got a seven year $73 million contract contract thanks to his strong performance in his last year with Golden State. Jerome James got paid $30 million for his strong playoff performance while with the Sonics.

The most near and dear to me was during my first year working for the Clippers during the ‘04-’05 season, when I was able to witness first hand Bobby Simmons’ explosive season. He averaged nearly 16 ppg, 6 rpg, and 3 apg, while shooting 47% from the field. At only 26 years of age, he had nice size (6′6, 230), could play either wing position, played solid defense, and mastered the mid-range game. He had a great focus and determination to improve with each practice and shoot around before each game. I was convinced his strong play had nothing to do with it being his contract year or that I was able to watch him in person. He was about to enter his prime and looked ready to contribute to a team.

I wanted the Clippers to re-sign him in the worst way. As luck would have it, he signed an offer sheet with the Milwaukee Bucks for five years and $47 million and the Clippers let him go free. Since then, he has been traded to the Nets, had a few injury problems, and saw his playing time (34, 22, & 24 mpg), scoring (13.4, 7.6, & 7.8 ppg), and shooting (45%, 42%, & 45%) fluctuate and decrease well below his career year numbers.

It just goes to show, you never really know.

So, what is the difference between Bobby and Trevor? Well, Trevor is more dynamic on defense, is only 23, seems to be a perfect complement to Kobe and likes to play off of him either spotting up, cutting or running the floor. He gives the Lakers great length at the position and tremendous athleticism. He is also an improved shooter. I also don’t believe Trevor will get anything near the Bobby Simmons type contract offers from other teams, therefore making him very affordable.

The only teams I think will go after Ariza are the Spurs, the Heat, and the Blazers. Each team could offer him their starting small forward spot, but San Antonio and Miami could only offer him the mid-level exception (starting at about $5.5m/yr) while Portland should have about $7-$8 million in cap space (assuming they think he is a definite upgrade over Travis Outlaw). The Grizzlies, Pistons, and Thunder will have plenty of cap space as well, but all those teams already have their small forward entrenched.

Therefore, my best guess is that we sign him to a four year contract in the range of $16-$20 million. Factor in his relatively cheap extension and his young age and you can see why I think he is a greater priority than Lamar, who might command more money in the open market and will be 30 at the start of next season.

In case anyone disagrees, ask yourself one question…would the Lakers have won without him?

Factor in the two game saving steals vs Denver that led to a 2-1 advantage and two huge quarters in the final two games of the Finals (Game 4, we were down 12 at the half when he got us back in the game by scoring 13 points in the third; Game 5, he scored 11 in the second, igniting a 16-0 run and we never looked back).

Need I say more…

Stay tuned for my break down of Lamar Odom and what might happen to him this off-season.

The Lakers – Your 2009 NBA Champions

It was this time last year; I can still remember the absolute disappointment. Lakers seemed to have everything in place:  The best coach, the best player, the final piece to the puzzle in the form of a seven foot Spaniard.

But, everything came crashing down June 17th, 2008. The night the Lakers lost to the Boston Celtics 131-92. The worst loss in a close out game in the Finals, ever.

Phil Jackson talked about the journey being what is truly important; and this was one hell of a journey that began when things ended last June.

It all seemed surreal; that game last night. It didn’t even seem possible. Not with two games left in LA and a Laker team lacking that killer instinct.

But, it happened Laker fans. It really happened. Now take it all in. Soak it all up.

Even with the Lakers being the favorites at the start of the season, I still can’t believe it. It’s one thing to have a goal, to talk about making it back, getting a second chance. But, to actually make it back to the Finals, and win. It seems like something put together down the street in Hollywood, not in STAPLES Center.

I can still remember that trade for Pau Gasol last year. It took maybe a week before I already had visions of a dynasty in the making.

We soared into the playoffs. We fought hard and played tough, even defeated the mighty San Antonio Spurs in five games. That brought on a clash of the titans match up between two storied franchises –the Los Angeles Lakers vs the Boston Celtics. It was the perfect backdrop for the NBA Finals. Unfortunately, it did not end well.

However, I think the painful loss — for the players, coaches, and fans — is what made this season so special. It’s also what gave us that drive, that passion, the will to win at all costs.

Not many teams are able to come back after defeat in the Finals and win; in fact, the Lakers are the first team to do so since the ‘89 Detroit Pistons.

I have enjoyed this season more than any other, and this title is as sweet as ever. We were supposed to blow through the Western Conference in the playoffs; instead, we found ourselves battling three tough, rugged teams:  The Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets.

However, I think each series brought about a new challenge and with it an opportunity to prove ourselves. I know I, like many others, doubted whether this team had the fortitude, the stones, to close a team out. Time and time again, we were all frustrated by the large leads the Lakers gave up during the regular season, and then continued in to the playoffs. But, with each challenge, a lesson was learned. We grew stronger, we grew closer, and more importantly, we began to believe. We took on Kobe Bryant’s demeanor. No matter the situation, we knew how to come back. We knew how to overcome.

We were pushed to the limit. Then again, if it wasn’t for the struggles we had — the games we narrowly escaped with a victory — who knows where we would be. If it wasn’t for the Yao-less Rockets pushing us to a Game 7, if it wasn’t for the Nuggets playing well enough to easily be up 3-0, and it if wasn’t for the Orlando Magic playing superb basketball in Games 2-4 of the Finals, we may not be where we are today — World Champions.

Phil Jackson’s words ring true. “There is something about sticktuitiveness, team camaraderie, guys that are willing to stay with it, be disciplined, and be coachable and here we are.” Where is that you ask? Try Kobe’s fourth, Phil’s 10th, and the Lakers 15th.

I want to say thank you to the Orlando Magic for playing as well as they did. That was not your typical five game series. We did not dominate them; we simply outlasted them. Two overtimes, two missed lay ups, two missed free throws. It was a series of missed opportunities for the Magic, but I give the Lakers all the credit in the world for taking advantage of every Magic mistake.

It was simple:  I believe, if it wasn’t for Dwight Howard and companies’ solid play in Games 2, 3, and 4, I do not think we would have won Game 5. We overcame an early deficit, thanks to our focus, and let’s face it, our hunger. We had learned to fear and respect the Orlando Magic. The last thing we wanted was to let the Magic get hot and shoot themselves into a Game 7, where anything can happen. As a result, we seized the day. Our guys really proved themselves and showed they are champions.

Who would have thought we would win a championship with our defense? Let me tell you, we did just that:

• Rafer Alston hit 38% of his threes vs the Cavs on his way to 12.5 ppg; we held him to 3-19 from downtown (16%) and 10.6 ppg.
• Hedo Turkoglu averaged 6.7 apg vs the Cavs and other than the Game 3 loss when he had seven assists, we held him to four assists or less in each game.
• Outside of Game 2, we held Rashard Lewis in check. In Games 1, 4, & 5 we held him to 2-10, 2-10, & 6-19 from the field, 40% shooting overall. The biggest factor was holding him to only 13 free throw attempts after shooting over 30 in each of the first three series.
• Best of all, we surrounded Dwight with double teams and intense pressure throughout the series that confounded the big man and forced him into four turnovers per game (only 2.6 tpg coming in). We held him to only 8.6 shots per game and 49% from the field (he shot 68%, 55%, and 65% in the first three rounds respectively). He also had as many turnovers as blocks (20).
• Pau did most of the defending on Dwight and did a wonderful job keeping him away from the basket and utilized his long arms to disrupt him all series long. Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom were active and used their length to their advantage as well, creating deflections and getting steals.
• Lakers defense got better as the playoffs went on. Their on the ball pressure, contesting of shots, and finishing off possessions with rebounds won them a championship.
• 91.2 ppg — that is what we held the juggernaut that was the Orlando Magic offense to in the Finals (they averaged 101 ppg during the regular season).

I think I enjoyed this season more than any other. I know I can appreciate this ring more than any other.

Maybe it is because you tend to appreciate things more as you get older (I did just turn 27 earlier in the month). Or maybe it is because it has been seven years since the last championship. Since then, we got embarrassed in the Finals by an underdog, traded away a franchise player, missed the playoffs entirely, got knocked out of the first round twice by the same team, and lost in the Finals again, this time to our bitter rival, all while having to endure two and some change seasons of Kwame Brown.

It all seems worth it now, now that we sit at the top. The fact that we got to do what many never get an opportunity to do — get a second chance, a chance for redemption.

Enjoy it Laker fans. Get your t-shirts and hats. Go have a drink with your friends. Skip work to pile in with the thousands of other Laker fans outside of STAPLES Center for the parade.

Take it all in. Soak it all up.

We earned every bit of this one.

Derek Fisher Does it Again!

I found myself scrambling from one title for my article to another throughout the entire game. At first, it seemed destined to be “The Refs BLEW it Again” (mind you, I was a little bitter in the first half). After the third quarter, I was ready for “Trevor Ariza’s Explosion in the Third Makes All the Difference.” Once I saw Kobe Bryant hit the first two shots of overtime I was ready to put his stamp on it with “The Black Mamba Comes Through When it Matters Most.”

I was about to flip it with “When 20 Rebounds and 9 Blocks Just Isn’t Enough,” or simply “Thank You Dwight.”

But, let’s be real, our boy Derek Fisher is the hero of the day.

I’ve been on the guy’s side all along. I swear. You can even ask my Uncle; I never lost faith in Fish.

Right before Game 1, my Uncle wrote me, “If Fish continues his playoff ways, lets hope for foul trouble, or Phil (Jackson) actually getting tired of waiting, and playing Shannon (Brown) more minutes.”

I responded with, “I know Fisher is struggling, but, he still has been to the Finals more than anyone not named Kobe and would you really trust major minutes to a guy who has 919 career minutes (Brown) or to a guy who has 24,684 minutes (Fisher)? I know Fisher has slowed…but for now, he will still start and should get most of the minutes. At least he knows the offense as well as anyone, puts himself in the right spots, and is a threat and does space the floor, even if he is shooting only 36% from the field and 24% from the 3-pt line (he still is a career 41% from behind the arc in the playoffs & I think he can hit a big shot at the end of a game, even if he’s 1-9).”

My Uncle watched the first game and wrote back, “…you were spot on with the comments on…Fishers experience. Just goes to show you that being a devoted Laker fan for over 30 years does not give me more insights than someone who knows how to read stats, how to scout teams and players, and can look at trends to provide logical evaluations.”

Sounds like my words could not have been more true. So the 64 year old wasn’t 1-9 from the field, but he was 0-5 from the three point line before he hit the two biggest shots of his career — and that’s saying something!

The last three games have been insanely entertaining and each one could have easily gone either way, but none more than Game 4.

There were so many layers to that game.

• Questionable calls that led to our bigs getting in major foul trouble.
• The Lakers poor shooting to start the game (33% in the first half).
• Our huge third quarter on both ends of the floor (outscoring them 30-14).
• The Magic had foul trouble of their own with Hedo Turkoglu picking up his fourth in the third quarter.
• Rashard Lewis had a poor shooting night (another 2-10 from the field).
• Dwight Howard had incredible energy to start the game that got EVERYONE in foul trouble and led to to 20 rebounds and a record nine blocks. However, he also had seven turnovers and eight missed free throws (the Magic missed 15 overall and a number of them in the fourth quarter).
• Oh, and how bad were the calls? The Magic shot their 15th free throw in the fourth quarter before picking up their first team foul, which did not come until the 1:14 mark in the fourth.
• Random stat, the Lakers are now 10-3 in the playoffs when Ariza gets at least one steal and hits one three in the same game (he had two steals and three threes in Game 4).

The first half was dominated by the Lakers bigs picking up one foul after another. The horrible calls completely threw off our rhythm on offense, and forced Phil Jackson to use all 12 guys in the first half. With so many whistles on both ends of the floor, there really was no flow to the game at all.

Luckily, my father and I were able to get a phone call in at halftime and did the usual:  Complain about the refs, the Lakers energy, the fact that as bad as we were playing, the least we could do is be more aggressive than the Magic. I reassured him that shooting is all about ups and downs. If Orlando shot 75% in the first half of Game 3, and only 38% in the second half, then logic would dictate that our 33% in the first half would jump to 70% in the second half…or something like that. With more shots going in and a little bit more hustle, we might even be able to put ourselves in position to steal the game.

In steps Trevor Ariza with an amazing third quarter performance. Credit our defense as well as the Magic only managed 14 points in the quarter. If it wasn’t for Ariza igniting the comeback, there would be no heroics by Fisher in the end.

The fourth quarter was as difficult as any to watch. First, Hedo went on a 5-0 run, and had me worried. Then, Dwight went to the line for two, and I figured he was good for one. That did not stop me from repeating in my head, ‘just miss two, just miss two, and make this game interesting.’ He did, and that’s all we needed.

When Fisher rose up and knocked down that three, I was unsure whether I was more excited to tie it up, or that it was Fish who came through. However, was anyone really surprised it went in? And when he sealed the deal with 30 seconds left in overtime, I was even less surprised.

Fisher gave us another moment to remember. One that will be forever remembered in the annals of Laker lore. What an amazing feeling, an amazing game, and an amazing player.

Long live Derek Fisher.

Laker Pride

I’ll be the first to admit that i’ve been critical of the Lakers all season. Not out of spite, but more because of a lack of effort and resiliency. Last night though, I saw a Laker team that refused to bow out. I saw a Laker team that fought through adversity on the road. I saw a Laker team that came together on the biggest stage to show a nation of doubters that they were, in fact, the real deal.

So what if  they came up a little short?  All I know is that this was one of the easier losses for me to swallow all post season because I knew we didn’t give it away. I know that sounds terrible, but lets be real… the Lakers aren’t perfect. Time to step outside of the bubble and see them for what they are. The reality is the Lakers can be stagnant on offense sometimes and in such cases Kobe is our bailout. The reality is the Laker Defense can be shaky. The reality is that it would be nice to win it all at home. The reality is, the Lakers could have given up game 3 in the first quarter… but they didn’t.

Laker pride is a term that my friends and I throw around a lot, it’s one of those “we aren’t going to throw anybody under the bus” things. Laker pride is more of a state of mind than  anything, it’s kinda like the Zen Phil throws around the locker room. It’s about not falling victim to the press, to the Kobe hating, to the never ending drama that is inherent to the Laker organization. Laker pride is about not giving up. In a postseason where Laker fever was no longer a pandemic, Laker pride seemed to be on the verge of extinction.

That is, until last night at least. Last night the Lakers battled through another storm in Florida. They went punch for punch with the Magic (who had an historic/unbelievable shooting night). Last night, Laker pride seemed to have infected the whole Laker team. They lost, I know… but if you are going to lose, that’s how you lose.

The Lakers went down swinging and didn’t show any signs of letting up until the final buzzer rang. The players were all confident, resilient, and ready to battle. They did everything to win a  game nobody thought they would. I was proud and you should be too, the Lakers have come a long way from the beginning of the playoffs.

With game 4 tomorrow, I’ll put my money on the Lakers. The Magic played a perfect game and the odds of them playing another one like that are slim to none. I think a friend of mine said it best: “I believe in Kobe, not in Magic”. Laker pride.

Lakers Fail to Make All the Right Plays

How often do we see it in sports where one play can make a difference. You hear coaches say it all the time, “a play in the first quarter is just as important as late in the game.”

The Lakers did plenty of things well last night in Orlando that easily could have won them the game, despite the record setting shooting night by the Magic.

• They shot 51% from the field.
• Saw Kobe Bryant go for 17 first quarter points in a myriad of difficult shots — he was 7-10 from the field with six of those shots coming from the perimeter with a hand in his face.
• We grabbed six more offensive rebounds than the Magic.
• Outscored them by nine points from the three point line.
• Got 31 points and 8 assists from Kobe; 23 points from Pau Gasol; 13 points and 7 rebounds from Trevor Ariza; and 11 points from both Lamar Odom and Jordan Farmar, who I thought hit some key baskets to keep us within reach.

That still doesn’t answer what happened. How did we lose that game? If Game 2 was Orlando’s to win or lose, Game 3 was certainly within the Lakers grasp up until the end.

After the first quarter, I thought my prediction was coming true. If you remember, I said the Magic would shoot well (they hit literally everything) and win a close game, unless Kobe went off (17 first quarter points). By halftime it was clear, who ever cooled off in the second half — Kobe or Orlando — would lose the game. Sure enough, Kobe went ice cold, while the Magic stayed white hot, and the Lakers lost a  close one.

Last night was clearly all about Orlando’s shooters, just as I predicted. I said we would continue to double Dwight — we did, but this time forced him into only one turnover and although he only had six shot attempts, he got to the line 16 times converting 11 of them, and is now shooting 68% for the series on nearly 14 attempts per game — and as a result, the Magic would shoot lights out (they did, although most of the damage was done inside the arc, as they were only 5-14 from three).

So, what did the Orlando Magic do well? 

• They shot an NBA Finals record for a half, 75% from the field in the first half (24-32); an NBA Finals record for a game, 62.5% from the field (40-64).
• They had 23 made field goals in Game 1; 24 missed field goals in Game 3.
• Rafer Alston got them off to a hot start by pushing, penetrating, and scorching the net early and often. He was Jameer-esque.
• Talk about balance, not only did the Magic have five guys score 18 or more, they also got solid performances from Hedo Turkoglu ( 18/6/7) and Rashard Lewis (21/5/5) who was also 3-6 from distance.
• Mickael Pietrus provided the Magic with another solid game off the bench posting 18 points on 7-11 from the field and three big steals.
• After scoring under 25 points in seven of the first eight quarters, they scored 27 or more in all but the third quarter of Game 3.

Go figure that it was the Lakers who failed to convert the big plays in the end when we needed it most. We did everything we could to start the fourth quarter, hitting all eight of our field goals until Ariza had his dunk blocked by Superman when we were down only four with 4:30 remaining. We then came up with three big stops — including two key steals — and tied it up at 99 (we could have had a good lead if Kobe didn’t blow an easy off balanced runner and if Pau finished an and one from five feet over Hedo).

In the last 2:11, after Pietrus’ tip-dunk, the final possessions were as follows:

• Kobe misses a contested three early in the shot clock.
• Fisher gets called for a ghost foul as Rafer drove the lane and blew a lay up — he hit one of two free throws.
• Kobe let himself get trapped on the perimeter, only to get bailed out by Pietrus who got called for a reach-in foul. We then took the ball out and Kobe dished to an open Gasol before getting trapped again, who then drove the lane, made the basket despite contact from Rashard who left his feet, bodied up Gasol in mid air, and hit him up high (mind you this is the play RIGHT after Fish got called for a foul just for playing good defense on Rafer). If you are going to call it close, be consistent.
• A simple pick and pop for Rafer and Rashard, was assisted by Lamar Odom who showed hard on Rafer trying to push him away, but he was still able to make a nice pass to Rashard, who of course hit the shot (luckily his toe was on the line).
• Kobe drives and gets a make up call, I guess, as Dwight moved his feet and appeared to tie him up, but got called for the foul anyway (did I mention the refs have been awful this playoffs?) — Kobe only hit one of two.
• Great defense from Odom and Gasol, blocking Rashard’s drive to the basket, who then batted it out of bounds trying to get his own miss.
• Lakers ball down only two with 37.6 seconds. Want a game changing play, well here it was. Kobe tries to split the Pietrus and Dwight double, only the  defensive player of the year made the biggest defensive play of his life, reaching down low and getting his fingers on Kobe’s cross over. Gasol still manages to dive on the ball, but instead of calling timeout, he tries to get it to Kobe quickly, only Pietrus was there waiting and came up with the biggest steal of the series. Kobe immediately had to foul — he converts both free throws.
• Down four with 28.7 to go. Lakers draw up a great play and get Kobe an excellent look at three, clank. Lamar makes a great save as he dives out of bounds, and the Lakers call timeout. With 16 seconds remaining and no timeouts, down two possessions, the Lakers decide to go for three and get an open look for Ariza who rims it, a 30-footer from Kobe who hits the heel, a 24-foot fade away from Fish who nearly banks it in, and a lay in by Kobe with essentially no time on the clock. Magic get their first victory in the Finals in seven tries and make it a series, two games to one.

If things didn’t go the Magic’s way in Game 2, it was the Lakers who simply could not make the plays needed to down the stretch to earn a victory in Game 3.

I am proud of our guys. Despite the poor defense and unconscious shooting by the Magic (even I didn’t think they’d shoot that well), we still had a chance there at the end.

I can’t imagine the Magic shooting over 60% again in the series, and if it wasn’t for Kobe shooting 3-14 in the second half and the Lakers missing 10 free throws — Kobe only hit 5-10 from the foul line (mind you this is the same guy who was 153-171, 89.4%, going into last night’s game and earlier in the year hit all 20 free throws when he dropped 61 on the Knicks) — the Lakers would be on the verge of a sweep. Then again, Magic fans will point to a couple of missed lay ups by Courtney Lee in Game 2 and claim they should be the ones up 2-1. It’s tough to play the ‘what if’ game when it comes to the playoffs. Instead, you have to deal with the right now, and right now the Magic believe they can win this series, which is why the next game is so critical.

Both teams are confident going into Game 4, and it is difficult to say who the pressure is on. Normally, you would say the home team down 2-1 has all the pressure. However, it is the Lakers who would consider this season a complete failure if they don’t win it all, while the Magic would have to be satisfied just to have made the Finals, seeing that their franchise player is only 23 years of age.

Having said that, this Laker team has come a long way since last season’s crushing defeat and I think we will find a way to defend Dwight and the shooters, as well as contain the Hedo and Dwight pick and roll. Defense won the first two games and I see no reason to think we can’t play well in Game 4.

Look for us to get after it on defense as we try to force the Magic into more turnovers. Kobe and Phil Jackson will not allow this team to lose another close game. There are far too many veterans on this team to allow that to happen again.

The Lakers will be victorious in Game 4 and Kobe will have to introduce Dwight to yet another poster.

Quick Prediction for Game 3

My prediction for Game 3 is that the Orlando Magic will come out firing on all cylinders tonight and take a big lead early on. The Lakers will claw their way back in a gutsy second half performance, but come up just short in the end.

We could pull out a victory if we 1) make the comeback early enough, or 2) don’t let the first half lead get to big. I see it finishing close either way.

We will continue to double hard on Dwight Howard, but the Magic’s shooters will be on tonight. That means Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Courtney Lee, and Jameer Nelson will all be hitting their threes, because we will give them good looks all night in an effort to keep Superman contained.

The measuring stick will be 13 threes. If the Magic go over = Magic win. They fall under = Lakers win.

Not to worry though. As much as we all want tonight’s game, this Magic team is too resilient to fold and get swept. Plus, I said it was going 7, so…

(One last thing. If Kobe goes off, which we all know he can, then everything gets thrown out the window. If he goes for 40 on a decent shooting percentage, Lakers win by eight and end the series, for all intensive purposes.)

NBA Finals: Purple and Gold Nuggets

Defense

• We have held the Magic under 25 points in seven of eight quarters, including a stretch where we held them under 20 points in four straight quarters (the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters of Game 1, and the 1st quarter of Game 2).
• We have held our opponent to only two fast break points. I knew that this would be a key to the Lakers having any chance of beating the Magic. If you remember, I warned the Lakers about the Magic’s use of transition threes. We are doing a  great job getting back on defense and when we turn the ball over, we are finding guys and matching up immediately.
• The Magic are shooting only 56-156 (36%) from the field through two games and are only 18-53 (34%) from three.
• Dwight Howard is only 6-16 from the field (38%) in the first two games; he was shooting 62% in the playoffs prior to the Finals. We have also forced him into nine turnovers so far.

Offense

• Effiecient offense beats the Magic and we have now shot 46% from the field as a team in each of the first two games. We also have a team assist to turnover ratio of 38-20 (nine turnovers in Game 1 and 12 turnovers in Game 2).
• As a team, we have hit 39 of our first 46 free throws — 85%.
• Kobe Bryant is averaging 34.5 ppg and 8 apg, while hitting 26 of 56 (46%) from the field; Pau Gasol is averaging 20 ppg and 3 apg on 54% shooting; Lamar Odom is averaging 15 ppg and has hit 13 of 20 from the field.

Could be trouble

• A troubling sight was Lamar Odom, who missed a number of defensive assignments in the second quarter of Game 2, simply leaving Rashard Lewis alone at least three or four times for wide open threes — the quarter in which he went off for 18 points. The effort was much better in the second half, although he still managed 14 points, but at least most of those shots were contested. Hopefully this was a fluke and Lamar will be able to stay focused on D the rest of the way.
• Orlando had 10 assists in Game 1, lost by 25; in Game 2 they had 22 assists and only lost by five in overtime. They moved the ball around much better and it resulted in better looks. Our defense is predicated on overloading one side, and focusing on Dwight Howard. Really, the only reason the Magic did not win Game 2 is because they also turned it over 20 times (only eight in Game 1). If they can find a way to move the ball without turning it over, they will get our guys chasing and rotating, making it much more likely they will find guys wide open on the perimiter, something Orlando is begging for with all of their shooters.
• Orlando seems to have found a way to exploit our defense. Rashard and Hedo Turkoglu had an excellent Game 2 as the Lakers swarmed Dwight with constant double teams. If the rest of the Magic’s shooters (Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Mickael Pietrus, J.J. Redick, Jameer Nelson) can find their shots at home, it will be tough to defeat them at Amway Arena. The good news, Hedo plays much better on the road, Rafer could not be more dejected by his lack of playing time, Lee is still a rookie, Pietrus and J.J. are inconsistent, and who really knows what to expect from Jameer. Regardless, Lakers defense will be put to the test like it never has before in this postseason for three games in Orlando.

Lakers Defense Will Win a Championship

If I told you Orlando’s big three outplayed the Lakers big three in STAPLES Center in Game 2, 1) you probably wouldn’t believe me, and 2) you probably figured the Magic pulled out a ‘W’. Right?

Not exactly. 99 percent of the time you would be right. Yet, the Lakers escaped. We all saw it. We all know it. More importantly, we are all okay with it.

Everyone is talking about how the game was there for the taking for the Magic, and I agree, it was. However, give the Lakers credit for taking the win by force. Give the Lakers credit for playing great defense in seven out of eight quarters, so far. Give the Lakers credit for making their own breaks (forcing 20 turnovers in a pivotal Game 2 victory) and making more plays, which helped win a game we probably should have lost.

How did we survive a game in which we were out-rebounded by nine, gave up 10 offensive rebounds to our four, and were outscored at the 3-point line by 15?

Not to mention Dwight Howard did something only Hakeem Olajuwon has ever done in the playoffs — got at least 15 pts, 15 reb, 4 ast, 4 stl, and 3 blk in a single game (17/16/4, and 4 stl, 4 blk to be exact).

Oh yea, and Rashard Lewis lived up to his $119M contract with a career playoff high, seven assists, to go along with 34 pts (including 18 of the teams 20 in the second quarter), 11 reb, and 6 threes.

Hedo Turkoglu finally found his form going for 22 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 3 threes, and surprisingly good defense on Kobe Bryant to end the game, forcing him into a number of tough shots and turnovers (Kobe had seven for the game).

It seemed like everything was going against us.

The Magic’s big three gave it their all, accounting for 83 pts, 33 reb, 15 ast, 5 stl, and 5 blk. They were 25-48 from the field, and 9-18 from the 3-pt line. The Lakers big three, in comparison, amassed 72 pts, 22 reb, 13 ast, 5 stl, and 4 blk. They shot 25-45 from the field and were only 1-4 from the 3-pt line.

Something that may have gone unnoticed, however, was the Lakers trio got more help from their role players. The help came in the form of Derek Fisher and Trevor Ariza who both contributed two threes and three steals a piece, while the Magic got six fouls from Mickael Pietrus and a 1-6 from three shooting night from J.J. Redick, who played a surprising 27 minutes, most of which were in crunch time.

The rookie Courtney Lee then decided to pitch in and help out a Lakers victory with a couple plays that I know Magic fans, and Lee, will be replaying over and over again.

However, the final 10 seconds is not what determined the game. Would you like to know where the game was really won? The damage was done way before that. I give you the most telling stat of all:  28-11. That is the number of points the Lakers scored off of Magic turnovers compared to what the Magic did. The only way to do that is to make things happen, as I said before. This is done with aggressive defense, and the Lakers did just that getting 12 steals that helped keep the Magic back on their heels all night long and ended up being the difference in a close game.

Not only did the Magic fail to convert the big plays (Lee’s missed runner with 10 seconds to go and then obviously the alley-oop with 0.6 seconds on the clock), but they also gave up the ball way too many times (20-12 turnovers, including seven by Superman). That cannot happen on the road, especially in the Finals.

Now, they did prove to the Lakers, the media, and the fans of both squads, that they can compete and will certainly not go down without a fight. The Magic are a better team at home and you would imagine they will rush fewer shots and hit a greater percentage of them.

If the Lakers are going to win any games in Orlando, they need to sustain their energy on defense (meaning continue to force turnovers), keep the Magic on their toes (we got Dwight in early foul trouble in Game 1 and fouled Pietrus out of Game 2, which directly affected Stan Van Gundy’s rotation, to the point he did not even play any of his three quality point guards for most of the end of that game), and hope Lamar Odom continues his stealer play (15 ppg, 11 rpg, 2 spg, 1 bpg, on 65% from the field).

In order to win a ring, sometimes you need a few breaks. An important loose ball rolls your way; an opponents’ shot rattles in and out; a guy on the other team blows a couple lay ups to end the game (sorry Courtney). In the case of the Orlando Magic, sometimes these things happen to you all at once, like in Game 2.

Just remember, it’s not how you win the games, but how many. Win by 25, or squeak out a five point victory in OT. It does not matter. The only thing that matters is that if the Lakers win two more games, no one will care whether we escaped a game or not.

Enjoy these times while you can Laker fans. There is nothing like watching your team round into a champion.

I do not want you to think that I am saying the job is already done (Kobe in his post-game interview certainly didn’t think so), I’m just saying we are on the verge of doing something great!

Laker Pride!